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It was discovered recently that frictional granular materials can exhibit an important mechanism for instabilities, i.e the appearance of pairs of complex eigenvalues in their stability matrix. The consequence is an oscillatory exponential…
We present a novel study on enhancing the capability of preserving the content in world models, focusing on a property we term World Stability. Recent diffusion-based generative models have advanced the synthesis of immersive and realistic…
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…
Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…
The effect of multiplicative stochastic perturbations on Hamiltonian systems on the plane is investigated. It is assumed that perturbations fade with time and preserve a stable equilibrium of the limiting system. The paper investigates…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
We employ a canonical variational framework for the predictive characterization of structural instabilities that develop during the diffusion-driven transient swelling of hydrogels under geometrical constraints. The variational formulation…
A new method for the stability assessment of inverter-based microgrids is presented in this paper. Directly determining stability boundaries by searching the multidimensional space of inverters' droop gains is a computationally prohibitive…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
We consider regression in which one predicts a response $Y$ with a set of predictors $X$ across different experiments or environments. This is a common setup in many data-driven scientific fields and we argue that statistical inference can…
In isolated quantum many-body systems periodically driven in time, the asymptotic dynamics at late times can exhibit distinct behavior such as thermalization or dynamical freezing. Understanding the properties of and the convergence towards…
Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…
Heavy rainfall distributional modeling is essential in any impact studies linked to the water cycle, e.g.\ flood risks. Still, statistical analyses that both take into account the temporal and multivariate nature of extreme rainfall are…
Many systems across the sciences evolve through a combination of multiplicative growth and diffusive transport. In the presence of disorder, these systems tend to form localized structures which alternate between long periods of relative…
The prediction of the temporal dynamics of chaotic systems is challenging because infinitesimal perturbations grow exponentially. The analysis of the dynamics of infinitesimal perturbations is the subject of stability analysis. In stability…
Real power systems exhibit dynamics that evolve across a wide range of time scales, from very fast to very slow phenomena. Historically, incorporating these wide-ranging dynamics into a single model has been impractical. As a result, power…
Randomly-assembled dynamical systems are theoretically predicted to be unstable upon crossing a critical threshold of complexity, as first shown by May. Yet, empirical complex systems exhibit remarkable stability, indicating the presence of…
As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…