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Whereas the importance of transient dynamics to the functionality and management of complex systems has been increasingly recognized, most of the studies are based on models. Yet in realistic situations the models are often unknown and what…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
The apparent stability of population oscillations in ecological systems is a long-standing puzzle. A generic solution for this problem is suggested here. The stabilizing mechanism involves the combined effect of spatial migration,…
When the complete understanding of a complex system is not available, as, e.g., for systems considered in the real-world, we need a top-down approach to complexity. In this approach one may start with the desire to understand general…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
Unlike macroscopic multistable mechanical systems such as snap bracelets or elastic shells that must be physically manipulated into various conformations, microscopic systems can undergo spontaneous conformation switching between…
In many instances, the dynamical richness and complexity observed in natural phenomena can be related to stochastic drives influencing their temporal evolution. For example, random noise allied to spatial asymmetries may induce…
Multiple stable states - the coexistence of two or more distinct ecological configurations under identical environmental conditions - have attracted sustained interest in ecology, yet the field still lacks a unified framework connecting…
The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated…
Transient stability assessment of power systems needs to account for increased risk from uncertainties due to the integration of renewables and distributed generators. The uncertain operating condition of the power grid hinders reliable…
We analyze ecological systems that are influenced by random environmental fluctuations. We first provide general conditions which ensure that the species coexist and the system converges to a unique invariant probability measure (stationary…
Recent work has shown that a variety of novel phases of matter arise in periodically driven Floquet systems. Among these are many-body localized phases which spontaneously break global symmetries and exhibit novel multiplets of Floquet…
When a system has more than one stable state, how can the stability of these states be compared? This deceptively simple question has important consequences for ecosystems, because systems with alternative stable states can undergo dramatic…
The Alaskan landscape has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, most notably the expansion of shrubs and trees across the Arctic. We developed a dynamic statistical model to quantify the impact of climate change on the structural…
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
We develop an analytic framework to understand fragmentation in turbulent, self-gravitating media. Previously, we showed some properties of turbulence can be predicted with the excursion-set formalism. Here, we generalize to fully…
We present a computational framework to investigate steady state distributions and perform stability analysis for random ordinary differential equations driven by parameter uncertainty. Using the nonlinear Rosenzweig McArthur predator prey…