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Related papers: Upgrading survival models with CARE

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A new method called SurvLIME for explaining machine learning survival models is proposed. It can be viewed as an extension or modification of the well-known method LIME. The main idea behind the proposed method is to apply the Cox…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin , Ernest M. Kasimov

Survival analysis is essential for clinical decision-making, as it allows practitioners to estimate time-to-event outcomes, stratify patient risk profiles, and guide treatment planning. Deep learning has revolutionized this field with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Pinar Erbil , Alberto Archetti , Eugenio Lomurno , Matteo Matteucci

The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Wei Tao , Jing Ning , Wen Li , Wenyaw Chan , Xi Luo , Ruosha Li

This paper studies statistical aggregation procedures in regression setting. A motivating factor is the existence of many different methods of estimation, leading to possibly competing estimators. We consider here three different types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Florentina Bunea , Alexandre Tsybakov , Marten Wegkamp

Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning with Verified Reward (RLVR) have driven the emergence of more sophisticated cognitive behaviors in large language models (LLMs), thereby enhancing their reasoning capabilities. However, in prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Qingbin Li , Rongkun Xue , Jie Wang , Ming Zhou , Zhi Li , Xiaofeng Ji , Yongqi Wang , Miao Liu , Zheming Yang , Minghui Qiu , Jing Yang

In survival analysis, longitudinal information on the health status of a patient can be used to dynamically update the predicted probability that a patient will experience an event of interest. Traditional approaches to dynamic prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-16 Mirko Signorelli

In this paper we introduce a mixture cure model with a linear hazard rate regression model for the event times. Cure models are statistical models for event times that take into account that a fraction of the population might never…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-26 Emil Aas Stoltenberg

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-11 Dylan Troop , Frédéric Godin , Jia Yuan Yu

In cancer epidemiology, the \emph{relative survival framework} is used to quantify the hazard associated with cancer by comparing the all-cause mortality hazard in cancer patients to that of the general population. This framework assumes…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-05 Piyali Basak , Antonio R. Linero , Camille Maringe , F. Javier Rubio

In modern randomized experiments, large-scale data collection increasingly yields rich baseline covariates and auxiliary information from multiple sources. Such information offers opportunities for more precise treatment effect estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Wei Ma , Zeqi Wu , Zheng Zhang

In biomedical studies, we are often interested in the association between different types of covariates and the times to disease events. Because the relationship between the covariates and event times is often complex, standard survival…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Hoi Min Ng , Kin Yau Wong

This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances…

Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Valerie Odeh-Couvertier , Gabriel Zayas-Caban , Brian Patterson , Amy Cochran

To address an important risk classification issue that arises in clinical practice, we propose a new mixture model via latent cure rate markers for survival data with a cure fraction. In the proposed model, the latent cure rate markers are…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Sungduk Kim , Yingmei Xi , Ming-Hui Chen

Uncertainty quantification is becoming increasingly important in image segmentation, especially for high-stakes applications like medical imaging. While conformal risk control generalizes conformal prediction beyond standard miscoverage to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Cure models have been developed as an alternative modelling approach to conventional survival analysis in order to account for the presence of cured subjects that will never experience the event of interest. Mixture cure models, which model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Eni Musta , Valentin Patilea , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Most risk analysis models systematically underestimate the probability and impact of catastrophic events (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, and terrorism) by not taking into account interconnectivity and interdependence of risks. To…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-10-17 Xin Lin , Alaa Moussawi , Gyorgy Korniss , Jonathan Z. Bakdash , Boleslaw K. Szymanski

Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by treatment allocation are the most popular way to depict causal effects in studies with right-censored time-to-event endpoints. If the treatment is randomly assigned and the sample size of the study is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-26 Robin Denz , Nina Timmesfeld

Many studies employ the analysis of time-to-event data that incorporates competing risks and right censoring. Most methods and software packages are geared towards analyzing data that comes from a continuous failure time distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 Tomer Meir , Malka Gorfine

Estimating the cure fraction in a diseased population, especially in the presence of competing mortality causes, is crucial for both patients and clinicians. It offers a valuable measure for monitoring and interpreting trends in disease…