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It is now well known that neural networks can be wrong with high confidence in their predictions, leading to poor calibration. The most common post-hoc approach to compensate for this is to perform temperature scaling, which adjusts the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-25 Tom Joy , Francesco Pinto , Ser-Nam Lim , Philip H. S. Torr , Puneet K. Dokania

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Post-hoc recalibration methods are widely used to ensure that classifiers provide faithful probability estimates. We argue that parametric recalibration functions based on logistic regression can be motivated from a simple theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Eugène Berta , David Holzmüller , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Christian Tomani , Daniel Cremers , Florian Buettner

Despite the undeniable progress in visual recognition tasks fueled by deep neural networks, there exists recent evidence showing that these models are poorly calibrated, resulting in over-confident predictions. The standard practices of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Balamurali Murugesan , Bingyuan Liu , Adrian Galdran , Ismail Ben Ayed , Jose Dolz

In spite of the dominant performances of deep neural networks, recent works have shown that they are poorly calibrated, resulting in over-confident predictions. Miscalibration can be exacerbated by overfitting due to the minimization of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Bingyuan Liu , Ismail Ben Ayed , Adrian Galdran , Jose Dolz

A reliable deep learning system should be able to accurately express its confidence with respect to its predictions, a quality known as calibration. One of the most effective ways to produce reliable confidence estimates with a pre-trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

In this paper, we study the post-hoc calibration of modern neural networks, a problem that has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. Many calibration methods of varying complexity have been proposed for the task, but there is no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Sergio A. Balanya , Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos

Model calibration seeks to ensure that models produce confidence scores that accurately reflect the true likelihood of their predictions being correct. However, existing calibration approaches are fundamentally tied to datasets of one-hot…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Haoyang Luo , Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Meelis Kull , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Markus Kängsepp , Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Peter Flach

Continual Learning (CL) is recently gaining increasing attention for its ability to enable a single model to learn incrementally from a sequence of new classes. In this scenario, it is important to keep consistent predictive performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Giuseppe Serra , Florian Buettner

Artificial neural networks are often overconfident, undermining trust because their predicted probabilities do not match actual accuracy. Inspired by biological sleep and the role of spontaneous replay in memory and learning, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jean Erik Delanois , Aditya Ahuja , Giri P. Krishnan , Maxim Bazhenov

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-26 Yung-Chen Tang , Pin-Yu Chen , Tsung-Yi Ho

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

The prediction reliability of neural networks is important in many applications. Specifically, in safety-critical domains, such as cancer prediction or autonomous driving, a reliable confidence of model's prediction is critical for the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Byeongmoon Ji , Hyemin Jung , Jihyeun Yoon , Kyungyul Kim , Younghak Shin

As machine learning techniques become widely adopted in new domains, especially in safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles, it is crucial to provide accurate output uncertainty estimation. As a result, many approaches have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Sooyong Jang , Radoslav Ivanov , Insup Lee , James Weimer

For semantic segmentation, label probabilities are often uncalibrated as they are typically only the by-product of a segmentation task. Intersection over Union (IoU) and Dice score are often used as criteria for segmentation success, while…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Zhipeng Ding , Xu Han , Peirong Liu , Marc Niethammer

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly boosted performance in natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, the deployment of high-performance LLMs incurs substantial costs, primarily due to the increased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Saehan Jo , Immanuel Trummer

Proper confidence calibration of deep neural networks is essential for reliable predictions in safety-critical tasks. Miscalibration can lead to model over-confidence and/or under-confidence; i.e., the model's confidence in its prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Shuang Ao , Stefan Rueger , Advaith Siddharthan

Generating confidence calibrated outputs is of utmost importance for the applications of deep neural networks in safety-critical decision-making systems. The output of a neural network is a probability distribution where the scores are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Chihuang Liu , Joseph JaJa
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