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Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Christian Lagemann , Kai Lagemann , Steven L. Brunton , Sach Mukherjee

Domain-specific large language models (LLMs), typically developed by fine-tuning a pre-trained general-purpose LLM on specialized datasets, represent a significant advancement in applied AI. A common strategy in LLM fine-tuning is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Jing-Cheng Pang , Liu Sun , Chang Zhou , Xian Tang , Haichuan Ma , Kun Jiang , Jianlong Wang , Kai Zhang , Sijie Wu , Haoran Cai , Chenwei Wu , Xubin Li , Xin Chen

We consider epidemic and ecological models to investigate their coupled dynamics. Starting with the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for basic epidemic behavior and the predator-prey (Lotka-Volterra, LV) system for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Maria Vasilyeva , Zheng Wei , Kelum Gajamannage , Hyangim Ji , Aleksei Krasnikov , Alexey Sadovski

Test time adaptation (TTA) equips deep learning models to handle unseen test data that deviates from the training distribution, even when source data is inaccessible. While traditional TTA methods often rely on entropy as a confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Afshar Shamsi , Rejisa Becirovic , Ahmadreza Argha , Ehsan Abbasnejad , Hamid Alinejad-Rokny , Arash Mohammadi

End-to-end learning of dynamical systems with black-box models, such as neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provides a flexible framework for learning dynamics from data without prescribing a mathematical model for the dynamics.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-20 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Sherri Rose , Lawrence Carin , Edward Meeds , Ricardo Henao

The discovery of novel experimental techniques often lags behind contemporary theoretical understanding. In particular, it can be difficult to establish appropriate measurement protocols without analytic descriptions of the underlying…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-07-21 Nicholas Hindley , Stephen J. DeVience , Ella Zhang , Leo L. Cheng , Matthew S. Rosen

The ultimate purpose of the statistical analysis of ordinal patterns is to characterize the distribution of the features they induce. In particular, knowing the joint distribution of the pair Entropy-Statistical Complexity for a large class…

We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-14 Emanuele Bernardi , Tommaso Lorenzi , Mattia Sensi , Andrea Tosin

Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-22 Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

When deploying a trained machine learning model in the real world, it is inevitable to receive inputs from out-of-distribution (OOD) sources. For instance, in continual learning settings, it is common to encounter OOD samples due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Chuanwen Feng , Wenlong Chen , Ao Ke , Yilong Ren , Xike Xie , S. Kevin Zhou

The social contagion literature makes a distinction between simple (independent cascade or bond percolation processes that pass infections through edges) and complex contagions (bootstrap percolation or threshold processes that require…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-05-05 Vahid Shamsaddini , M. Amin Rahimian

Mathematical models of biological populations commonly use discrete structure classes to capture trait variation among individuals (e.g. age, size, phenotype, intracellular state). Upscaling these discrete models into continuum descriptions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-18 Eleonora Agostinelli , Keith L. Chambers , Helen M. Byrne , Mohit P. Dalwadi

Entropy governs molecular self-assembly, phase transitions, and material stability, yet remains challenging to quantify and directly control in molecular systems. Here, we demonstrate that the computable information density (CID), a data…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-27 Ashley Z. Guo , Kaelyn Chang , Nicholas J. Corrente

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable generative performance, yet their output quality is dependent on the decoding strategy. While sampling-based methods (e.g., top-k, nucleus) and search-and-select based methods (e.g., beam…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Benjamin Patrick Evans , Sumitra Ganesh , Leo Ardon

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards has significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) typically assigns a uniform, sequence-level advantage to all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Song Yu , Li Li , Wenwen Zhao , Zhisheng Yang

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often exhibit overconfidence when encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, posing significant challenges for deployment. Since DNNs are trained on in-distribution (ID) datasets, the information flow of ID…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Guide Yang , Chao Hou , Weilong Peng , Xiang Fang , Yongwei Nie , Peican Zhu , Keke Tang

The new estimates of the conditional Shannon entropy are introduced in the framework of the model describing a discrete response variable depending on a vector of d factors having a density w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure in R^d. Namely, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-25 Alexander Bulinski , Alexey Kozhevin

Entropy serves as a critical metric for measuring the diversity of outputs generated by large language models (LLMs), providing valuable insights into their exploration capabilities. While recent studies increasingly focus on monitoring and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Shumin Wang , Yuexiang Xie , Wenhao Zhang , Yuchang Sun , Yanxi Chen , Yaliang Li , Yanyong Zhang

Transfer entropy (TE) is an information theoretic measure that reveals the directional flow of information between processes, providing valuable insights for a wide range of real-world applications. This work proposes Transfer Entropy…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Omer Luxembourg , Dor Tsur , Haim Permuter

Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Yinling Zhang , Nan Chen , Jerome Vialard , Xianghui Fang