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Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Sophia Sun , Rose Yu

Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition is a workhorse algorithm for discovering underlying low-dimensional structure in tensor data. This is accomplished in conventional CP decomposition by fitting a low-rank tensor to data with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Alex Mulrooney , David Hong

We introduce two new extensions to the beam search algorithm based on conformal predictions (CP) to produce sets of sequences with theoretical coverage guarantees. The first method is very simple and proposes dynamically-sized subsets of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Nicolas Deutschmann , Marvin Alberts , María Rodríguez Martínez

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Previous methods solve feature matching and pose estimation using a two-stage process by first finding matches and then estimating the pose. As they ignore the geometric relationships between the two tasks, they focus on either improving…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Fei Xue , Ignas Budvytis , Roberto Cipolla

We study computing geometric problems on uncertain points. An uncertain point is a point that does not have a fixed location, but rather is described by a probability distribution. When these probability distributions are restricted to a…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2012-05-03 Allan Jorgensen , Maarten Löffler , Jeff M. Phillips

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Template matching is a fundamental task in computer vision and has been studied for decades. It plays an essential role in manufacturing industry for estimating the poses of different parts, facilitating downstream tasks such as robotic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Zhirui Gao , Renjiao Yi , Zheng Qin , Yunfan Ye , Chenyang Zhu , Kai Xu

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yuanjie Shi , Hooman Shahrokhi , Xuesong Jia , Xiongzhi Chen , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Canonicalization provides an architecture-agnostic method for enforcing equivariance, with generalizations such as frame-averaging recently gaining prominence as a lightweight and flexible alternative to equivariant architectures. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Nadav Dym , Hannah Lawrence , Jonathan W. Siegel

Many machine learning methods assume that the training and test data follow the same distribution. However, in the real world, this assumption is very often violated. In particular, the phenomenon that the marginal distribution of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Masanari Kimura , Hideitsu Hino

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

We address the problem of making Conformal Prediction (CP) intervals locally adaptive. Most existing methods focus on approximating the object-conditional validity of the intervals by partitioning or re-weighting the calibration set. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Nicolo Colombo

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag

Unaligned Scene Change Detection aims to detect scene changes between image pairs captured at different times without assuming viewpoint alignment. To handle viewpoint variations, current methods rely solely on 2D visual cues to establish…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Ziling Liu , Ziwei Chen , Mingqi Gao , Jinyu Yang , Feng Zheng

We tackle the problem of learning the geometry of multiple categories of deformable objects jointly. Recent work has shown that it is possible to learn a unified dense pose predictor for several categories of related objects. However,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-21 Natalia Neverova , Artsiom Sanakoyeu , Patrick Labatut , David Novotny , Andrea Vedaldi

We present an application of conformal prediction, a form of uncertainty quantification with guarantees, to the detection of railway signals. State-of-the-art architectures are tested and the most promising one undergoes the process of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-27 Léo Andéol , Thomas Fel , Florence De Grancey , Luca Mossina