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Correcting for detector effects in experimental data, particularly through unfolding, is critical for enabling precision measurements in high-energy physics. However, traditional unfolding methods face challenges in scalability,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-11-28 Camila Pazos , Shuchin Aeron , Pierre-Hugues Beauchemin , Vincent Croft , Zhengyan Huan , Martin Klassen , Taritree Wongjirad

We introduce constrained Gaussian process (CGP), a Gaussian process model for random functions that allows easy placement of mathematical constrains (e.g., non-negativity, monotonicity, etc) on its sample functions. CGP comes with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Jeremiah Zhe Liu

This paper is concerned with the online estimation of a nonlinear dynamic system from a series of noisy measurements. The focus is on cases wherein outliers are present in-between normal noises. We assume that the outliers follow an unknown…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-14 Bin Liu

We consider a class of conditional forward-backward diffusion models for conditional generative modeling, that is, generating new data given a covariate (or control variable). To formally study the theoretical properties of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rong Tang , Lizhen Lin , Yun Yang

Given an empirical distribution $f(x)$ of sensitive data $x$, we consider the task of minimizing $F(y) = D_{\text{KL}} (f(x)\Vert y)$ over a probability simplex, while protecting the privacy of $x$. We observe that, if we take the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Donlapark Ponnoprat

We propose dual regression as an alternative to the quantile regression process for the global estimation of conditional distribution functions under minimal assumptions. Dual regression provides all the interpretational power of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Richard Spady , Sami Stouli

We derive the Jeffreys prior for the parameter of the Multivariate Ewens Distribution and study some of its properties. In particular, we show that this prior is proper and has no finite moments. We also investigate the impact of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Abel Rodriguez

In this paper, we discuss the non-collapsibility concept and propose a new approach based on Dirichlet process mixtures to estimate the conditional effect of covariates in non-collapsible models. Using synthetic data, we evaluate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-09 Sepehr Akhavan Masouleh , Babak Shahbaba , Daniel L. Gillen

We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Sebastian Benthall , Alan Lujan

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

The present paper provides exact expressions for the probability distributions of linear functionals of the two-parameter Poisson--Dirichlet process $\operatorname {PD}(\alpha,\theta)$. We obtain distributional results yielding exact forms…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Lancelot F. James , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-07 Piero Veronese , Eugenio Melilli

We introduce a conditional pair distribution function (CPDF) which characterizes the probability density of finding an object (e.g., a particle in a fluid) to certain distance of other, with each of these two having a nearest neighbor to a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-19 René D. Rohrmann , Ernesto Zurbriggen

In this work, we establish, for a strong Feller process, the large deviation principle for the occupation measure conditioned not to exit a given subregion. The rate function vanishes only at a unique measure, which is the so-called…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Arnaud Guillin , Boris Nectoux , Liming Wu

Dirichlet Process(DP) is a Bayesian non-parametric prior for infinite mixture modeling, where the number of mixture components grows with the number of data items. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP), is an extension of DP for grouped…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-02 Lavanya Sita Tekumalla , Priyanka Agrawal , Indrajit Bhattacharya

Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Ali Al Kadhim , Harrison B. Prosper

An important functional of Poisson random measure is the negative binomial process (NBP). We use NBP to introduce a generalized Poisson-Kingman distribution and its corresponding random discrete probability measure. This random discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Sadegh Chegini , Mahmoud Zarepour

The potential applications of boundary functionals of random processes, such as the extreme values of these processes, the moment of first reaching a fixed level, the value of the process at the moment of reaching the level, the moment of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-15 V. V. Ryazanov

Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Ryan Martin , Nicholas Syring

We extend classic characterisations of posterior distributions under Dirichlet process and gamma random measures priors to a dynamic framework. We consider the problem of learning, from indirect observations, two families of time-dependent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-23 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero , Dario Spanò