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Building the conditional probability distribution of wind power forecast errors benefits both wind farms (WFs) and independent system operators (ISOs). Establishing the joint probability distribution of wind power and the corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Mengshuo Jia , Shaowei Huang , Zhiwen Wang , Chen Shen

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is important for deploying reliable machine learning models on real-world applications. Recent advances in outlier exposure have shown promising results on OOD detection via fine-tuning model with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Jianing Zhu , Geng Yu , Jiangchao Yao , Tongliang Liu , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama , Bo Han

The main contribution of this paper is the derivation of the asymptotic behaviour of the out-of-sample variance, the out-of-sample relative loss, and of their empirical counterparts in the high-dimensional setting, i.e., when both ratios…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Erik Thorsén

The Dirichlet forms methods, in order to represent errors and their propagation, are particularly powerful in infinite dimensional problems such as models involving stochastic analysis encountered in finance or physics, cf. [5]. Now, coming…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-04 Nicolas Bouleau

In meta analysis, multiple hypothesis testing and many other methods, p-values are utilized as inputs and assumed to be uniformly distributed over the unit interval under the null hypotheses. If data used to generate p-values have discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Joshua Habiger , Pratyaydipta Rudra

This work focuses on off-policy evaluation (OPE) with function approximation in infinite-horizon undiscounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). For MDPs that are ergodic and linear (i.e. where rewards and dynamics are linear in some known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Nevena Lazic , Dong Yin , Mehrdad Farajtabar , Nir Levine , Dilan Gorur , Chris Harris , Dale Schuurmans

We present the new Orthogonal Polynomials Approximation Algorithm (OPAA), a parallelizable algorithm that estimates probability distributions using functional analytic approach: first, it finds a smooth functional estimate of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Lilian W. Bialokozowicz

For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-18 Sergey Kamenshchikov , Ilia Drozdov

Mathematical psychology has a long tradition of modeling probabilistic choice via distribution-free random utility models and associated random preference models. For such models, the predicted choice probabilities often form a bounded and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Clintin P. Davis-Stober , Jean-Paul Doignon , Samuel Fiorini , François Glineur , Michel Regenwetter

In the usual statistical inference problem, we estimate an unknown parameter of a statistical model using the information in the random sample. A priori information about the parameter is also known in several real-life situations. One such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-11 Lakshmi Kanta Patra , Constantinos Petropoulos , Shrajal Bajpai , Naresh Garg

For stochastic approximation algorithms with discontinuous dynamics, it is shown that under suitable distributional assumptions, the interpolated iterates track a Fillipov solution of the limiting differential inclusion. In addition, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Vivek Borkar , Dhruv Shah

We derive limiting distributions of symmetrized estimators of scatter, where instead of all $n(n-1)/2$ pairs of the $n$ observations we only consider $nd$ suitably chosen pairs, $1 \le d < \lfloor n/2\rfloor$. It turns out that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Lutz Duembgen , Klaus Nordhausen

A statistical approach based on the interval analysis (IA) is proposed for the analysis of the effects, on the radiation patterns radiated by phased arrays, of random errors and tolerances in the amplitudes and phases of the array-elements…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-10 P. Rocca , N. Anselmi , A. Benoni , A. Massa

Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes

A number of recent studies have estimated the inter-galactic void probability function and investigated its departure from various random models. We study a family of parametric statistical models based on gamma distributions, which do give…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2008-11-27 C. T. J. Dodson

Interpolation polynomials were introduced by Knop--Sahi in type $A$, and Okounkov in type $BC$. They are inhomogeneous polynomials whose top terms are Jack and Macdonald polynomials. Thus the expansion coefficients for the product of two…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Hong Chen , Siddhartha Sahi

Inverse optimization (IO) is used to estimate unknown parameters of an optimization model from observed decisions. In the data-driven context, the estimated parameters are inherently uncertain, yet quantifying this uncertainty has received…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Timothy C. Y. Chan , Nathan Sandholtz , Nasrin Yousefi

Fr\'echet means, conceptually appealing, generalize the Euclidean expectation to general metric spaces. We explore how well Fr\'echet means can be estimated from independent and identically distributed samples and uncover a fundamental…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-20 Shayan Hundrieser , Benjamin Eltzner , Stephan F. Huckemann

In large-scale modern data analysis, first-order optimization methods are usually favored to obtain sparse estimators in high dimensions. This paper performs theoretical analysis of a class of iterative thresholding based estimators defined…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Yiyuan She

A novel and comprehensive methodology designed to tackle the challenges posed by extreme values in the context of random censorship is introduced. The main focus is on the analysis of integrals based on the product-limit estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Martin Bladt , Igor Rodionov