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In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-04 Holger Drees , Laurens de Haan

In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-28 Olivier Thas , Stijn Jaspers

We consider the classical problem of discrete distribution estimation using i.i.d. samples in a novel scenario where additional side information is available on the distribution. In large alphabet datasets such as text corpora, such side…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Haricharan Balasundaram , Andrew Thangaraj

We consider a family of infinite dimensional product measures with tails between Gaussian and exponential, which we call $p$-exponential measures. We study their measure-theoretic properties and in particular their concentration. Our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 Sergios Agapiou , Masoumeh Dashti , Tapio Helin

In extreme value theory and other related risk analysis fields, probability weighted moments (PWM) have been frequently used to estimate the parameters of classical extreme value distributions. This method-of-moment technique can be applied…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Anna Ben-Hamou , Philippe Naveau , Maud Thomas

We propose a novel sensitivity analysis framework for linear estimators with identification failures that can be viewed as seeing the wrong outcome distribution. Our approach measures the degree of identification failure through the change…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-30 Jacob Dorn , Luther Yap

Markov decision processes are widely used for planning and verification in settings that combine controllable or adversarial choices with probabilistic behaviour. The standard analysis algorithm, value iteration, only provides a lower bound…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-10-21 Arnd Hartmanns , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski

Outlier detection is one of the most popular and continuously rising topics in the data mining field due to its crucial academic value and extensive industrial applications. Among different settings, unsupervised outlier detection is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-03 Sibo Zhu , Handong Zhao , Hongfu Liu

Unitary best approximation to the exponential function on an interval on the imaginary axis has been introduced recently. In the present work two algorithms are considered to compute this best approximant: an algorithm based on rational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Tobias Jawecki

We propose a new, more general definition of extended probability measures. We study their properties and provide a behavioral interpretation. We put them to use in an inference procedure, whose environment is canonically represented by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-13 Michele Caprio , Sayan Mukherjee

In this paper, we propose a new distribution with unitary support which can be characterized as a ratio of the type $W=X_1/(X_1+X_2)$, where $(X_1, X_2)^\top$ follows a bivariate extreme distribution with Fr\'echet margins, that is, $X_1$…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Roberto Vila , Felipe Quintino

We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Laura Dumitrescu , Ioana Schiopu-Kratina

Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: i.e., the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Martin J. Wainwright

Linear regression with normally distributed errors - including particular cases such as ANOVA, Student's t-test or location-scale inference - is a widely used statistical procedure. In this case the ordinary least squares estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-18 Alain Desgagné

Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), combined with EM, is commonly used as an algorithm for likelihood maximization in undirected graphical models. In this paper, we present two iterative algorithms that generalize upon IPF. The first one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Wim Wiegerinck , Tom Heskes

We evaluate priors by the second order asymptotic behavior of the corresponding estimators.Under certain regularity conditions, the risk differences between efficient estimators of parameters taking values in a domain D, an open connected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-08 J. A. Hartigan

We introduce a new method for the estimation of the angular parameters [i.e., central directions of arrival (DOAs) and angular spreads] of multiple non-circular and incoherently-distributed (ID) sources and thoroughly analyze its…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-01-07 Sonia Ben Hassen , Faouzi Bellili , Abdelaziz Samet , Sofiène Affes

M-estimation, aka empirical risk minimization, is at the heart of statistics and machine learning: Classification, regression, location estimation, etc. Asymptotic theory is well understood when the loss satisfies some smoothness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Victor-Emmanuel Brunel

In this paper the asymptotic distribution of estimators is derived in a general regression setting where rank restrictions on a submatrix of the coefficient matrix are imposed and the regressors can include stationary or I(1) processes.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-08 Dietmar Bauer

This paper proposes a robust and computationally efficient estimation framework for fitting parametric distributions based on trimmed L-moments. Trimmed L-moments extend classical L-moment theory by downweighting or excluding extreme order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Chudamani Poudyal , Qian Zhao , Hari Sitaula
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