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Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-31 Gregory Faletto , Jacob Bien

In this paper we propose a new Bayesian estimation method to solve linear inverse problems in signal and image restoration and reconstruction problems which has the property to be scale invariant. In general, Bayesian estimators are {\em…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari , Jérôme Idier

Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a regret bound that ensures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Chao Qin , Zheng Wen , Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy

In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Abhishek Roy , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Murat A. Erdogdu

We study the problem of linear regression where both covariates and responses are potentially (i) heavy-tailed and (ii) adversarially contaminated. Several computationally efficient estimators have been proposed for the simpler setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Ankit Pensia , Varun Jog , Po-Ling Loh

We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng

We introduce a new class of distributions named log-adjusted shrinkage priors for the analysis of sparse signals, which extends the three parameter beta priors by multiplying an additional log-term to their densities. The proposed prior has…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-28 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We perform the a posteriori error analysis of residual type of a transmission problem with sign changing coefficients. According to [6] if the contrast is large enough, the continuous problem can be transformed into a coercive one. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2010-09-17 Serge Nicaise , Juliette Venel

We consider the challenges that arise when fitting complex ecological models to 'large' data sets. In particular, we focus on random effect models which are commonly used to describe individual heterogeneity, often present in ecological…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-17 Ruth King , Blanca Sarzo , Víctor Elvira

Because of the widespread existence of noise and data corruption, recovering the true regression parameters with a certain proportion of corrupted response variables is an essential task. Methods to overcome this problem often involve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Zheyi Fan , Zhaohui Li , Jingyan Wang , Dennis K. J. Lin , Xiao Xiong , Qingpei Hu

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Jongyeong Lee , Junya Honda , Chao-Kai Chiang , Masashi Sugiyama

We consider the problem of choosing design parameters to minimize the probability of an undesired rare event that is described through the average of $n$ iid random variables. Since the probability of interest for near optimal design…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-22 Amarjit Budhiraja , Shu Lu , Yang Yu , Quoc Tran-Dinh

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-12 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

We study the problem of robust information selection for a Bayesian hypothesis testing / classification task, where the goal is to identify the true state of the world from a finite set of hypotheses based on observations from the selected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-24 Jayanth Bhargav , Shreyas Sundaram , Mahsa Ghasemi

The problem of binary hypothesis testing between two probability measures is considered. New sharp bounds are derived for the best achievable error probability of such tests based on independent and identically distributed observations.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Valentinian Lungu , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We propose a new approach to the theory of conditioning for numerical analysis problems for which both classical and stochastic perturbation theory fail to predict the observed accuracy of computed solutions. To motivate our ideas, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-07 Martin Lotz , Vanni Noferini

The functional linear model is an important extension of the classical regression model allowing for scalar responses to be modeled as functions of stochastic processes. Yet, despite the usefulness and popularity of the functional linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Ioannis Kalogridis , Stanislav Nagy