Related papers: Akaike information criterion for segmented regress…

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…

For sequential data, a change point is a moment of abrupt regime switch in data streams. Such changes appear in different scenarios, including simpler data from sensors and more challenging video surveillance data. We need to detect…

A common approach to detect multiple changepoints is to minimise a measure of data fit plus a penalty that is linear in the number of changepoints. This paper shows that the general finite sample behaviour of such a method can be related to…

This paper is concerned with the detection of multiple change-points in the joint distribution of independent categorical variables. The procedures introduced rely on model selection and are based on a penalized least-squares criterion.…

Managers, employers, policymakers, and others often seek to understand whether decisions are biased against certain groups. One popular analytic strategy is to estimate disparities after adjusting for observed covariates, typically with a…

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

We consider the problem of sequential (online) estimation of a single change point in a piecewise linear regression model under a Gaussian setup. We demonstrate that certain CUSUM-type statistics attain the minimax optimal rates for…

Describing statistical dependencies is foundational to empirical scientific research. For uncovering intricate and possibly non-linear dependencies between a single target variable and several source variables within a system, a principled…

The framework of Partial Information Decomposition (PID) unveils complex nonlinear interactions in network systems by dissecting the mutual information (MI) between a target variable and several source variables. While PID measures have…

Longitudinal data are common in clinical trials and observational studies, where missing outcomes due to dropouts are always encountered. Under such context with the assumption of missing at random, the weighted generalized estimating…

We consider a sparse linear regression model, when the number of available predictors, $p$, is much larger than the sample size, $n$, and the number of non-zero coefficients, $p_0$, is small. To choose the regression model in this…

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC), defined as the observed data log likelihood minus a penalty term based on the sample size $N$, is a popular model selection criterion for factor analysis with complete data. This definition has also…

This paper introduces an estimator of the relative directed distance between an estimated model and the true model, based on the Kulback-Leibler divergence and is motivated by the generalized information criterion proposed by Konishi and…

Smoothed AIC (S-AIC) and Smoothed BIC (S-BIC) are very widely used in model averaging and are very easily to implement. Especially, the optimal model averaging method MMA and JMA have only been well developed in linear models. Only by…

Conventionally, regression discontinuity analysis contrasts a univariate regression's limits as its independent variable, $R$, approaches a cut-point, $c$, from either side. Alternative methods target the average treatment effect in a small…

It is common practice to discretize continuous defect counts into defective and non-defective classes and use them as a target variable when building defect classifiers (discretized classifiers). However, this discretization of continuous…

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly…

We consider the problem of breakpoint detection in a regression modeling framework. To that end, we introduce a novel method, the max-EM algorithm which combines a constrained Hidden Markov Model with the Classification-EM (CEM) algorithm.…

Inequalities may appear in many models. They can be as simple as assuming a parameter is nonnegative, possibly a regression coefficient or a treatment effect. This paper focuses on the case that there is only one inequality and proposes a…

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of…