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When considering a model selection or, more generally, an aggregation approach for adaptive statistical inference, it is often necessary to compute estimators over a wide range of model complexities including unnecessarily large models even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Ilsang Ohn , Shitao Fan , Jungbin Jun , Lizhen Lin

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

Synthetic data is becoming an increasingly promising technology, and successful applications can improve privacy, fairness, and data democratization. While there are many methods for generating synthetic tabular data, the task remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Alexander Norcliffe , Bogdan Cebere , Fergus Imrie , Pietro Lio , Mihaela van der Schaar

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent Coull

Ensemble attacks integrate the outputs of surrogate models with diverse architectures, which can be combined with various gradient-based attacks to improve adversarial transferability. However, previous work shows unsatisfactory attack…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Yipeng Zou , Qin Liu , Jie Wu , Yu Peng , Guo Chen , Hui Zhou , Guanghui Ye

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Shahriar Noroozizadeh , Xiaobin Shen , Jeremy C. Weiss , George H. Chen

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shi-ang Qi , Neeraj Kumar , Mahtab Farrokh , Weijie Sun , Li-Hao Kuan , Rajesh Ranganath , Ricardo Henao , Russell Greiner

We investigate ensemble methods for prediction in an online setting. Unlike all the literature in ensembling, for the first time, we introduce a new approach using a meta learner that effectively combines the base model predictions via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Arda Fazla , Mustafa Enes Aydin , Orhun Tamyigit , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

A method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect under condition of censored time-to-event data called BENK (the Beran Estimator with Neural Kernels) is proposed. The main idea behind the method is to apply the Beran…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Stanislav R. Kirpichenko , Lev V. Utkin , Andrei V. Konstantinov

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Statistical and structural modeling represent two distinct approaches to data analysis. In this paper, we propose a set of novel methods for combining statistical and structural models for improved prediction and causal inference. Our first…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-11 Jiaming Mao , Jingzhi Xu

Predictive maintenance is an effective tool for reducing maintenance costs. Its effectiveness relies heavily on the ability to predict the future state of health of the system, and for this survival models have shown to be very useful. Due…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-02 Olov Holmer , Erik Frisk , Mattias Krysander

Unsupervised ensemble learning has long been an interesting yet challenging problem that comes to prominence in recent years with the increasing demand of crowdsourcing in various applications. In this paper, we propose a novel method--…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-16 Luwan Zhang , Tianrun Cai

Unsupervised ensemble learning emerged to address the challenge of combining multiple learners' predictions without access to ground truth labels or additional data. This paradigm is crucial in scenarios where evaluating individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Ariel Maymon , Yanir Buznah , Uri Shaham

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a significant mental health challenge that affects individuals exposed to traumatic events. Early detection and effective intervention for PTSD are crucial, as it can lead to long-term psychological…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Ayesha Siddiqua , Atib Mohammad Oni , Abu Saleh Musa Miah , Jungpil Shin

Survival analysis is a critical tool for modeling time-to-event data. Recent deep learning-based models have reduced various modeling assumptions including proportional hazard and linearity. However, a persistent challenge remains in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Maxmillan Ries , Sohan Seth

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

One of the most popular paradigms of applying large pre-trained NLP models such as BERT is to fine-tune it on a smaller dataset. However, one challenge remains as the fine-tuned model often overfits on smaller datasets. A symptom of this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-25 Yiren Chen , Xiaoyu Kou , Jiangang Bai , Yunhai Tong

Ensemble models can be used to estimate prediction uncertainties in machine learning models. However, an ensemble of N models is approximately N times more computationally demanding compared to a single model when it is used for inference.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Vidit Agrawal , Shixin Zhang , Lane E. Schultz , Dane Morgan