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Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Farbod Siahkali , Ashwin Verma , Vijay Gupta

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

We propose a deep learning algorithm for high dimensional optimal stopping problems. Our method is inspired by the penalty method for solving free boundary PDEs. Within our approach, the penalized PDE is approximated using the Deep BSDE…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-07 Yunfei Peng , Pengyu Wei , Wei Wei

Predictive Coding (PC) is an influential account of cortical learning. Much of recent work has focused on comparing PC to Backpropagation (BP) to find whether PC offers any advantages. Small scale experiments show that PC enables learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Gaspard Oliviers , Elene Lominadze , Rafal Bogacz

Though neural network models demonstrate impressive performance, we do not understand exactly how these black-box models make individual predictions. This drawback has led to substantial research devoted to understand these models in areas…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-10 Serena Booth , Ankit Shah , Yilun Zhou , Julie Shah

We propose self-adaptive training---a new training algorithm that dynamically corrects problematic training labels by model predictions without incurring extra computational cost---to improve generalization of deep learning for potentially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-01 Lang Huang , Chao Zhang , Hongyang Zhang

This paper presents a new learning algorithm, termed Deep Bi-directional Predictive Coding (DBPC) that allows developing networks to simultaneously perform classification and reconstruction tasks using the same weights. Predictive Coding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Senhui Qiu , Saugat Bhattacharyya , Damien Coyle , Shirin Dora

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Siu Lun Chau , Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Yusuf Sale , Michele Caprio

Continual learning (CL) studies how models acquire tasks sequentially while retaining previously learned knowledge. Despite substantial progress in benchmarking CL methods, comparative evaluations typically keep the fine-tuning regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Paul-Tiberiu Iordache , Elena Burceanu

Interpretation of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) training as an optimal control problem with nonlinear dynamical systems has received considerable attention recently, yet the algorithmic development remains relatively limited. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Guan-Horng Liu , Tianrong Chen , Evangelos A. Theodorou

Selective classification techniques (also known as reject option) have not yet been considered in the context of deep neural networks (DNNs). These techniques can potentially significantly improve DNNs prediction performance by trading-off…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-02 Yonatan Geifman , Ran El-Yaniv

Deep neural networks (DNN) are prone to miscalibrated predictions, often exhibiting a mismatch between the predicted output and the associated confidence scores. Contemporary model calibration techniques mitigate the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Rishabh Patra , Tirtharaj Dash , Gautam Shroff , Lovekesh Vig

As deep learning predictive models become an integral part of a large spectrum of precision agricultural systems, a barrier to the adoption of such automated solutions is the lack of user trust in these highly complex, opaque and uncertain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Supervised training of deep neural networks for classification typically relies on hard targets, which promote overconfidence and can limit calibration, generalization, and robustness. Self-distillation methods aim to mitigate this by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Anton Adelöw , Matteo Gamba , Atsuto Maki