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Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Anthony Bellotti

The merit of Conformal Prediction (CP), as a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification, depends on generating prediction sets that are efficient, reflected in small average set sizes, while adaptive, meaning they signal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Navid Akhavan Attar , Hesam Asadollahzadeh , Ling Luo , Uwe Aickelin

Estimating the expectation of a Bernoulli random variable based on N independent trials is a classical problem in statistics, typically addressed using Binomial Proportion Confidence Intervals (BPCI). In the control systems community, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Rudi Coppola , Manuel Mazo

We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Daniel Schweizer , Peter Kuhn , Jayant Sharma , Shivali Dubey , Malte von Ramin , Christoph Brockt-Haßauer

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

Supervised training of deep neural nets typically relies on minimizing cross-entropy. However, in many domains, we are interested in performing well on metrics specific to the application. In this paper we propose a direct loss minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-06-03 Yang Song , Alexander G. Schwing , Richard S. Zemel , Raquel Urtasun

Constraint Programming (CP) is a declarative programming paradigm that allows for modeling and solving combinatorial optimization problems, such as the Job-Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP). While CP solvers manage to find optimal or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Pierre Tassel , Martin Gebser , Konstantin Schekotihin

Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Subhrasish Chakraborty , Chhavi Tyagi , Haiyan Qiao , Wenge Guo

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Cross-Project Defect Prediction (CPDP), which borrows data from similar projects by combining a transfer learner with a classifier, have emerged as a promising way to predict software defects when the available data about the target project…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Ke Li , Zilin Xiang , Tao Chen , Kay Chen Tan

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

We present a novel regularization approach to train neural networks that enjoys better generalization and test error than standard stochastic gradient descent. Our approach is based on the principles of cross-validation, where a validation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-09-06 Simon Jenni , Paolo Favaro

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Mintong Kang , Nezihe Merve Gürel , Linyi Li , Bo Li

We propose conformal predictive programming (CPP), a framework to solve chance constrained optimization problems, i.e., optimization problems with constraints that are functions of random variables. CPP utilizes samples from these random…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-06 Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , Matteo Sesia , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh , Lars Lindemann

In this study, we present a deep learning-optimization framework to tackle dynamic mixed-integer programs. Specifically, we develop a bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) framework that can process information forward and backward in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Dogacan Yilmaz , İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

Deep neural network (DNN) classifiers are often overconfident, producing miscalibrated class probabilities. In high-risk applications like healthcare, practitioners require $\textit{fully calibrated}$ probability predictions for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-09 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Deep learning models for medical imaging often exhibit overconfidence, creating safety risks in ambiguous diagnostic scenarios. While Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free statistical guarantees, standard methods such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-14 One Octadion , Novanto Yudistira , Lailil Muflikhah

Miscalibration in deep learning refers to there is a discrepancy between the predicted confidence and performance. This problem usually arises due to the overfitting problem, which is characterized by learning everything presented in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Zongbo Han , Yifeng Yang , Changqing Zhang , Linjun Zhang , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Qinghua Hu