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Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…

The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-02-12 Duncan Palmer , John Frater , Rodney Philips , Angela McLean , Gil McVean

Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-14 Yutaka Okabe , Akira Shudo

Diversity-Generating Retroelements (DGRs) create rapid, targeted variation within specific genomic regions in phages and bacteria. They operate through stochastic retro-transcription of a template region (TR) into a variable region (VR),…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-19 Léo Régnier , Paul Rochette , Raphaël Laurenceau , David Bikard , Simona Cocco , Rémi Monasson

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-28 Matthijs Meijers , Denis Ruchnewitz , Jan Eberhardt , Malancha Karmakar , Marta Łuksza , Michael Lässig

Understanding the temporal spread of gene drive alleles -- alleles that bias their own transmission -- through modeling is essential before any field experiments. In this paper, we present a deterministic reaction-diffusion model describing…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-11-01 Léna Kläy , Léo Girardin , Vincent Calvez , Florence Débarre

Genome variants which re-occur independently across evolutionary lineages are key molecular signatures of adaptation. Inferring the dynamics of such genetic changes from pandemic-scale genomic datasets is now possible, which opens up…

Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Dylan J. Morris , Lauren Kennedy , Andrew J. Black

Motivated by observations in sequence data of herpesviruses, we introduce a multi-locus model for the joint evolution of different genotypes in a virus population that is distributed across a population of hosts. In the model, virus…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-24 Raphael Eichhorn , Cornelia Pokalyuk

Reputed intractable, the question of the origin of viruses has long been neglected. In the modern literature 'Virus evolution' has come to refer to study more akin to population genetics, such as the world-wide scrutiny on new polymorphisms…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Jean-Michel Claverie

A major challenge in biology is explaining how novel characters originate, however, the molecular mechanisms that underlie the emergence of evolutionary innovations are unclear. Here we show that while gene expression in the uterus evolves…

We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-12-05 Chao-Ran Cai , Zhi-Xi wu , Jian-Yue Guan

We consider the hypothesis that Evolution promotes population-wide genome patterns that, under randomization, ensures the External Validity of adaptations across population members. An adaptation is Externally Valid (EV) if its effect holds…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-17 Andre F. Ribeiro

Viral infection requires the binding of receptors on the target cell membrane to glycoproteins, or ``spikes,'' on the viral membrane. The initial entry is usually classified as fusogenic or endocytotic. However, binding of viral spikes to…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-26 Tom Chou

In 2022, a group of basic and clinical virologists, bioinformaticians, and evolutionary and structural biologists met in Oxford, UK, to develop a consensus on methodologies used to classify viruses. They concluded that virus taxonomy, which…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-26 Alexandr A. Ezhov

A current challenge for disease modeling and public health is understanding pathogen dynamics across scales since their ecology and evolution ultimately operate on several coupled scales. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-19 Hayriye Gulbudak

Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-29 Bibandhan Poudyal , Gourab Ghoshal

In many complex systems, the dynamic processes that take place on a network and the changes in the network topology are intertwined. Here, we propose a model of coevolutionary dynamics of information spreading which is accompanied with link…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-01 Jeehye Choi , Byungjoon Min

Virophages are viruses that rely on the replication machinery of other viruses to reproduce within eukaryotic hosts. Two different modes of coinfection have been posited based on experimental observation. In one mode, the virophage and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-05-13 Bradford P. Taylor , Michael H. Cortez , Joshua S. Weitz

The current theory of evolution is almost the one Darwin and Wallace proposed two centuries ago and the following discoveries e.g., Mendelian genetics and neutral mutation theory have not made significant modifications. The current…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-14 Reza Rahmanzadeh