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What proportion of treated units actually benefited from an experimental intervention? What is the median or the largest individual treatment effect? This paper develops methods for answering such questions about the distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 David Kim , Yongchang Su , Jake Bowers , Xinran Li

Accurate diagnostic tests are essential for effective screening and treatment. However, individual biomarkers often fail to provide sufficient diagnostic accuracy, as they typically capture only one aspect of the complex disease process.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Ainesh Sewak , Sandra Siegfried , Torsten Hothorn

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become increasingly important in many fields. In this paper we study distributions and quantiles of individual treatment effects to provide a more comprehensive and robust understanding of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Zhe Chen , Xinran Li

The constant development of new data analysis methods in many fields of research is accompanied by an increasing awareness that these new methods often perform better in their introductory paper than in subsequent comparison studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Christina Nießl , Sabine Hoffmann , Theresa Ullmann , Anne-Laure Boulesteix

The ICH E9(R1) addendum provides guidelines on accounting for intercurrent events in clinical trials using the estimands framework. However, there has been limited attention to the estimands framework for meta-analysis. Using treatment…

External control arms can inform early clinical development of experimental drugs and provide efficacy evidence for regulatory approval. However, accessing sufficient real-world or historical clinical trials data is challenging. Indeed,…

The best evidence concerning comparative treatment effectiveness comes from clinical trials, the results of which are reported in unstructured articles. Medical experts must manually extract information from articles to inform…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-01-11 Benjamin E. Nye , Jay DeYoung , Eric Lehman , Ani Nenkova , Iain J. Marshall , Byron C. Wallace

Randomized experiments are the "gold standard" for estimating causal effects, yet often in practice, chance imbalances exist in covariate distributions between treatment groups. If covariate data are available before units are exposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-25 Kari Lock Morgan , Donald B. Rubin

Learning about causal effects in target populations and their subsets may be facilitated by combining information from multiple sources. One major class of study designs that combine information involves appending an index study with data…

Some patients benefit from a treatment while others may do so less or do not benefit at all. We have previously developed a two-stage network meta-regression prediction model that synthesized randomized trials and evaluates how treatment…

Loss of power and clear description of treatment differences are key issues in designing and analyzing a clinical trial where non-proportional hazard is a possibility. A log-rank test may be very inefficient and interpretation of the hazard…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-13 Satrajit Roychoudhury , Keaven M Anderson , Jiabu Ye , Pralay Mukhopadhyay

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or policy. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a prespecified probability and may lead to inefficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Randomized clinical trials typically aim to estimate a marginal treatment effect. While covariate adjustment can improve precision, it may change the estimand in nonlinear models due to noncollapsibility, leading to conditional rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leticia Wuethrich , Torsten Hothorn

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Lan Wen , Aaron L Sarvet

To date, testing interactions in high dimensions has been a challenging task. Existing methods often have issues with sensitivity to modeling assumptions and heavily asymptotic nominal p-values. To help alleviate these issues, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-29 Noah Simon , Robert Tibshirani

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

The amount of data collected from patients involved in clinical trials is continuously growing. All patient characteristics are potential covariates that could be used to improve clinical trial analysis and power. However, the restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-29 Samuel Branders , Alvaro Pereira , Guillaume Bernard , Marie Ernst , Adelin Albert

There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Kelly Van Lancker , Frank Bretz , Oliver Dukes
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