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Understanding causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behavior. For many real-world systems, however, the true causal graph is not readily available and one must resort to predictions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Elias Eulig , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Patrick Blöbaum , Michaela Hardt , Dominik Janzing

Methods of causal discovery aim to identify causal structures in a data driven way. Existing algorithms are known to be unstable and sensitive to statistical errors, and are therefore rarely used with biomedical or epidemiological data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Christine W Bang , Janine Witte , Ronja Foraita , Vanessa Didelez

Time-series data presents limitations stemming from data quality issues, bias and vulnerabilities, and generalization problem. Integrating universal data synthesis methods holds promise in improving generalization. However, current methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Fanzhe Fu , Junru Chen , Jing Zhang , Carl Yang , Lvbin Ma , Yang Yang

Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gene Yu , Ce Guo , Wayne Luk

The limited data availability due to strict privacy regulations and significant resource demands severely constrains biomedical time-series AI development, which creates a critical gap between data requirements and accessibility. Synthetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Youngjoon Lee , Seongmin Cho , Yehhyun Jo , Jinu Gong , Hyunjoo Jenny Lee , Joonhyuk Kang

Temporal knowledge graph reasoning (TKGR) is increasingly gaining attention for its ability to extrapolate new events from historical data, thereby enriching the inherently incomplete temporal knowledge graphs. Existing graph-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Jinze Sun , Yongpan Sheng , Lirong He , Yongbin Qin , Ming Liu , Tao Jia

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-02 Ting-Yun Ou , Ching Chang , Wen-Chih Peng

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Raha Moraffah , Paras Sheth , Mansooreh Karami , Anchit Bhattacharya , Qianru Wang , Anique Tahir , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

Fair graph learning plays a pivotal role in numerous practical applications. Recently, many fair graph learning methods have been proposed; however, their evaluation often relies on poorly constructed semi-synthetic datasets or substandard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Xiaowei Qian , Zhimeng Guo , Jialiang Li , Haitao Mao , Bingheng Li , Suhang Wang , Yao Ma

In this paper, we analyze the applicability of the Causal Identification algorithm to causal time series graphs with latent confounders. Since these graphs extend over infinitely many time steps, deciding whether causal effects across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Erik Jahn , Karthik Karnik , Leonard J. Schulman

Time series data are found in many areas of healthcare such as medical time series, electronic health records (EHR), measurements of vitals, and wearable devices. Causal discovery, which involves estimating causal relationships from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

Learning from longitudinal electronic health records is limited if it does not capture the temporal trajectories of the patient's state in a clinical setting. Graph models allow us to capture the hidden dependencies of the multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Munib Mesinovic , Soheila Molaei , Peter Watkinson , Tingting Zhu

Learning the dynamic causal structure of time series is a challenging problem. Most existing approaches rely on distributional or structural invariance to uncover underlying causal dynamics, assuming stationary or partially stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Dezhi Yang , Qiaoyu Tan , Carlotta Domeniconi , Jun Wang , Lizhen Cui , Guoxian Yu

Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Matteo Tusoni , Giuseppe Masi , Andrea Coletta , Aldo Glielmo , Viviana Arrigoni , Novella Bartolini

Dynamic graph datasets often exhibit strong temporal patterns, such as recency, which prioritizes recent interactions, and popularity, which favors frequently occurring nodes. We demonstrate that simple heuristics leveraging only these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Filip Cornell , Oleg Smirnov , Gabriela Zarzar Gandler , Lele Cao

Diffusion models have shown great promise in data generation, yet generating time series data remains challenging due to the need to capture complex temporal dependencies and structural patterns. In this paper, we present \textit{TSGDiff},…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Lifeng Shen , Xuyang Li , Lele Long

Causal discovery problems use a set of observations to deduce causality between variables in the real world, typically to answer questions about biological or physical systems. These observations are often recorded at regular time…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-24 Kurt Butler , Damian Machlanski , Panagiotis Dimitrakopoulos , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

In this paper, we introduce a novel class of graphical models for representing time lag specific causal relationships and independencies of multivariate time series with unobserved confounders. We completely characterize these graphs and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Andreas Gerhardus