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Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Gian Marco Paldino , Gianluca Bontempi

Inferring causal structures from time series data is the central interest of many scientific inquiries. A major barrier to such inference is the problem of subsampling, i.e., the frequency of measurement is much lower than that of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Lingjing Hu , Yizhou Wang

With the growing complexity of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructures such as water treatment networks, there is a pressing need for robust anomaly detection strategies that account for both system vulnerabilities and evolving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Arun Vignesh Malarkkan , Haoyue Bai , Dongjie Wang , Yanjie Fu

Causal discovery from time series data is a typical problem setting across the sciences. Often, multiple datasets of the same system variables are available, for instance, time series of river runoff from different catchments. The local…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-23 Wiebke Günther , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Conditional time series generation plays a critical role in addressing data scarcity and enabling causal analysis in real-world applications. Despite its increasing importance, the field lacks a standardized and systematic benchmarking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Shaocheng Lan , Shuqi Gu , Zhangzhi Xiong , Kan Ren

Multivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Md Osman Gani

Time series forecasting is a fundamental tool with wide ranging applications, yet recent debates question whether complex nonlinear architectures truly outperform simple linear models. Prior claims of dominance of the linear model often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Md Rakibul Haque , Vishwa Goudar , Shireen Elhabian , Warren Woodrich Pettine

Causal analysis has become an essential component in understanding the underlying causes of phenomena across various fields. Despite its significance, existing literature on causal discovery algorithms is fragmented, with inconsistent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-05 Wenjin Niu , Zijun Gao , Liyan Song , Lingbo Li

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Many physical processes can be expressed through partial differential equations (PDEs). Real-world measurements of such processes are often collected at irregularly distributed points in space, which can be effectively represented as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Jost Arndt , Utku Isil , Michael Detzel , Wojciech Samek , Jackie Ma

The growing availability and importance of time series data across various domains, including environmental science, epidemiology, and economics, has led to an increasing need for time-series causal discovery methods that can identify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Omar Faruque , Sahara Ali , Xue Zheng , Jianwu Wang

This paper introduces a new causal structure learning method for nonstationary time series data, a common data type found in fields such as finance, economics, healthcare, and environmental science. Our work builds upon the constraint-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-10 Agathe Sadeghi , Achintya Gopal , Mohammad Fesanghary

Many important phenomena in scientific fields like climate, neuroscience, and epidemiology are naturally represented as spatiotemporal gridded data with complex interactions. Inferring causal relationships from these data is a challenging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kun Wang , Sumanth Varambally , Duncan Watson-Parris , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

Causal discovery between collections of time-series data can help diagnose causes of symptoms and hopefully prevent faults before they occur. However, reliable causal discovery can be very challenging, especially when the data acquisition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Haonan Chen , Bo Yuan Chang , Mohamed A. Naiel , Georges Younes , Steven Wardell , Stan Kleinikkink , John S. Zelek

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

Detecting anomalies in discrete event logs is critical for ensuring system reliability, security, and efficiency. Traditional window-based methods for log anomaly detection often suffer from context bias and fuzzy localization, which hinder…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Jiaxing Qi , Chang Zeng , Zhongzhi Luan , Shaohan Huang , Shu Yang , Yao Lu , Hailong Yang , Depei Qian

Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data is an ill-posed problem because multiple generating mechanisms can lead to the same observational distribution. This problem becomes solvable only by exploiting specific structural or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Ameya Rathod , Sujay Belsare , Salvik Krishna Nautiyal , Dhruv Laad , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru

Temporal data, representing chronological observations of complex systems, has always been a typical data structure that can be widely generated by many domains, such as industry, medicine and finance. Analyzing this type of data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-04 Chang Gong , Di Yao , Chuzhe Zhang , Wenbin Li , Jingping Bi