Related papers: Drawdowns, Drawups, and Occupation Times under Gen…
Drawdown/regret times feature prominently in optimal stopping problems, in statistics (CUSUM procedure) and in mathematical finance (Russian options). Recently it was discovered that a first passage theory with general drawdown times, which…
Drawdown (resp. drawup) of a stochastic process, also referred as the reflected process at its supremum (resp. infimum), has wide applications in many areas including financial risk management, actuarial mathematics and statistics. In this…
Time bounded reachability is a fundamental problem in model checking continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) and Markov decision processes (CTMDPs) for specifications in continuous stochastic logics. It can be computed by numerically solving…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…
There are no computationally feasible algorithms that provide solutions to the finite horizon Risk-sensitive Constrained Markov Decision Process (Risk-CMDP) problem, even for problems with moderate horizon. With an aim to design the same,…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…
This paper proposes a metric for sets of trajectories to evaluate multi-object tracking algorithms that includes time-weighted costs for localisation errors of properly detected targets, for false targets, missed targets and track switches.…
The widespread use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional applications has motivated research into the scalability of these algorithms with respect to the dimension of the problem. Despite this, numerous problems…
Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs…
Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters and output is a critical component in model-driven decision support systems for groundwater management. This paper presents a novel algorithmic approach which fuses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
In many sequential decision-making problems one is interested in minimizing an expected cumulative cost while taking into account \emph{risk}, i.e., increased awareness of events of small probability and high consequences. Accordingly, the…
The focal point of this paper is the issue of "drawdown" which arises in recursive betting scenarios and related applications in the stock market. Roughly speaking, drawdown is understood to mean drops in wealth over time from peaks to…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the…
Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), are routinely used for Bayesian inference in generalized linear models; however, these algorithms are prohibitively slow in massive data…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…
Recently Dutta and Bhattacharya (2013) introduced a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology that can simultaneously update all the components of high dimensional parameters using simple deterministic transformations of a one-dimensional…
Control of drawdown, that is, the control of the drops in wealth over time from peaks to subsequent lows, is of great concern from a risk management perspective. With this motivation in mind, the focal point of this paper is to address the…
We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a risk measure of variability in cost, under the risk-aware MDPs paradigm. Previous studies showed that risk-aware MDPs, based on a minimax approach to handling risk, can be…
We consider the problem of designing policies for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with dynamic coherent risk objectives and constraints. We begin by formulating the problem in a Lagrangian framework. Under the assumption that the risk…