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Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , Kuan Liu , Ramandeep Singh , Daniel J. Graham

A randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely regarded as the gold standard for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention, assuming perfect implementation. In practice, however, randomization can be compromised for various…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Yin Tang , Yanyuan Ma , Jiwei Zhao

While palliative care is increasingly commonly delivered to hospitalized patients with serious illnesses, few studies have estimated its causal effects. Courtright et al. (2016) adopted a cluster-randomized stepped-wedge design to assess…

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

This paper considers the problem of inference in cluster randomized experiments when cluster sizes are non-ignorable. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the cluster level. By…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-11 Federico Bugni , Ivan Canay , Azeem Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

The global average treatment effect (GATE) is a primary quantity of interest in the study of causal inference under network interference. With a correctly specified exposure model of the interference, the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) and H\'ajek…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-07 Johan Ugander , Hao Yin

We overview Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 František Bartoš , Frederik Aust , Julia M. Haaf

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- inferences from a randomized trial to a target population involve conditioning on a large set of covariates that is sufficient for rendering the randomized and non-randomized groups…

Causal excursion effect (CEE) characterizes the effect of an intervention under policies that deviate from the experimental policy. It is widely used to study the effect of time-varying interventions that have the potential to be frequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Zhaoxi Cheng , Lauren Bell , Tianchen Qian

The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is a sequential randomized experimental design to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of mobile health (mHealth) intervention components that may be delivered at hundreds or thousands of decision points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Defining the Inclusion/Exclusion (I/E) criteria of a trial is one of the most important steps during a trial design. Increasingly complex I/E criteria potentially create information imbalance and transparency issues between the people who…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-08 Junshui Ma , Daniel J. Holder

Suppose one wishes to estimate the effect of a binary treatment on a binary endpoint conditional on a post-randomization quantity in a counterfactual world in which all subjects received treatment. It is generally difficult to identify this…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-12 Alex Luedtke , Jiacheng Wu

The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse event (AE) data in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). Although statistical…

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-03 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Giacomo Zanella

Modern causal inference methods allow machine learning to be used to weaken parametric modeling assumptions. However, the use of machine learning may result in complications for inference. Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Paul N Zivich , Alexander Breskin

The case-crossover design (Maclure, 1991) is widely used in epidemiology and other fields to study causal effects of transient treatments on acute outcomes. However, its validity and causal interpretation have only been justified under…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-22 Zach Shahn , Miguel A. Hernan , James M. Robins

The parallel cluster randomized trial with baseline (PB-CRT) is a common variant of the standard parallel cluster randomized trial (P-CRT). We define two natural estimands in the context of PB-CRTs with informative cluster sizes, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Kenneth Menglin Lee , Fan Li

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Lei Yang , Michael J. Daniels , Fan Li