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Stock return prediction is fundamental to financial decision-making, yet traditional time series models fail to capture the complex interdependencies between companies in modern markets. We propose the Full-State Graph Convolutional LSTM…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-09 Chang Liu

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-30 Ben Moews , J. Michael Herrmann , Gbenga Ibikunle

In this paper, a method of prediction on continuous time series variables from the production or flow -- an LSTM algorithm based on multivariate tuning -- is proposed. The algorithm improves the traditional LSTM algorithm and converts the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Hongzhi Wang , Yang Song , Shihan Tang

Traditionally, traders and quantitative analysts address alpha decay by manually crafting formulaic alphas, mathematical expressions that identify patterns or signals in financial data, through domain expertise and trial-and-error. This…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Qizhao Chen , Hiroaki Kawashima

Time-series forecasting is a critical task across many domains, from engineering to economics, where accurate predictions drive strategic decisions. However, applying advanced deep learning models in challenging, volatile domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Andrzej Podobiński , Jarosław A. Chudziak

Stock market is often important as it represents the ownership claims on businesses. Without sufficient stocks, a company cannot perform well in finance. Predicting a stock market performance of a company is nearly hard because every time…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-25 Aadhitya A , Rajapriya R , Vineetha R S , Anurag M Bagde

The stock market is a fundamental component of financial systems, reflecting economic health, providing investment opportunities, and influencing global dynamics. Accurate stock market predictions can lead to significant gains and promote…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Gonzalo Lopez Gil , Paul Duhamel-Sebline , Andrew McCarren

The stock market has been established since the 13th century, but in the current epoch of time, it is substantially more practicable to anticipate the stock market than it was at any other point in time due to the tools and data that are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-27 Ryan Chipwanya

Machine and deep learning-based algorithms are the emerging approaches in addressing prediction problems in time series. These techniques have been shown to produce more accurate results than conventional regression-based modeling. It has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Sima Siami-Namini , Neda Tavakoli , Akbar Siami Namin

Our study focuses on comparing the performance and resource requirements between different Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architectures and an ANN specialized architecture for forex market prediction. We analyze the execution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-20 Theodoros Zafeiriou , Dimitris Kalles

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-21 Mingwen Liu , Junbang Huo , Yulin Wu , Jinge Wu

The long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is capable of processing complex sequential information since it utilizes special gating schemes for learning representations from long input sequences. It has the potential to model any…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-04-28 Vivek Veeriah , Naifan Zhuang , Guo-Jun Qi

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-13 Lars Elend , Sebastian A. Tideman , Kerstin Lopatta , Oliver Kramer

With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-13 Kasun Bandara , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl

Deep learning searches for nonlinear factors for predicting asset returns. Predictability is achieved via multiple layers of composite factors as opposed to additive ones. Viewed in this way, asset pricing studies can be revisited using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-27 Guanhao Feng , Jingyu He , Nicholas G. Polson

Factorization machines (FMs) are a powerful tool for regression and classification in the context of sparse observations, that has been successfully applied to collaborative filtering, especially when side information over users or items is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Jill-Jênn Vie , Tomas Rigaux , Hisashi Kashima

We introduce NoxTrader, a sophisticated system designed for portfolio construction and trading execution with the primary objective of achieving profitable outcomes in the stock market, specifically aiming to generate moderate to long-term…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-09 Hsiang-Hui Liu , Han-Jay Shu , Wei-Ning Chiu

A comparative analysis of deep learning models and traditional statistical methods for stock price prediction uses data from the Nigerian stock exchange. Historical data, including daily prices and trading volumes, are employed to implement…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-11 Opeyemi Sheu Alamu , Md Kamrul Siam

The US stock market experienced instability following the recession (2007-2009). COVID-19 poses a significant challenge to US stock traders and investors. Traders and investors should keep up with the stock market. This is to mitigate risks…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-07 Reza Nematirad , Amin Ahmadisharaf , Ali Lashgari

This article aims to propose and apply a machine learning method to analyze the direction of returns from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) using the historical return data of its components, helping to make investment strategy decisions through…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-14 Raphael P. B. Piovezan , Pedro Paulo de Andrade Junior
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