Related papers: Backward Filtering Forward Guiding
We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et…
Inference in nonlinear continuous stochastic processes on trees is challenging, particularly when observations are sparse and the topology is complex. Exact smoothing via Doob's $h$-transform is intractable for general nonlinear dynamics.…
Suppose X is a multivariate diffusion process that is observed discretely in time. At each observation time, a transformation of the state of the process is observed with noise. The smoothing problem consists of recovering the path of the…
In this document I aim to give an informal treatment of automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding, a general algorithm for conditional sampling from a Markov process on a directed acyclic graph. I'll show that the underlying ideas can be…
Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) is a bidirectional algorithm proposed in Mider et al. [2021] and studied more in depth in a general setting in Van der Meulen and Schauer [2022]. In category theory, optics have been proposed for…
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to…
Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…
Learning the structure of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) presents a significant challenge due to the vast combinatorial search space of possible graphs, which scales exponentially with the number of nodes. Recent advancements have redefined…
In Bayesian structure learning, we are interested in inferring a distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure of Bayesian networks, from data. Defining such a distribution is very challenging, due to the combinatorially…
Recently continuous relaxations have been proposed in order to learn Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data by backpropagation, instead of using combinatorial optimization. However, a number of techniques for fully discrete…
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) serve as crucial data representations in domains such as hardware synthesis and compiler/program optimization for computing systems. DAG generative models facilitate the creation of synthetic DAGs, which can…
We present a novel form of Fourier analysis, and associated signal processing concepts, for signals (or data) indexed by edge-weighted directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). This means that our Fourier basis yields an eigendecomposition of a…
In multivariate time series analysis, understanding the underlying causal relationships among variables is often of interest for various applications. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework for representing causal…
This paper presents a Bayesian inferential framework for estimating joint, conditional, and marginal probabilities in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) applied to the study of the progression of hospitalized patients with severe influenza.…
We propose a linear-time, single-pass, top-down algorithm for multiple testing on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent hypotheses and edges specify a partial ordering in which hypotheses must be tested. The procedure is…
Bayesian phylogenetics typically estimates a posterior distribution, or aspects thereof, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These methods integrate over tree space by applying local rearrangements to move a tree through its space as a…
A common theme in causal inference is learning causal relationships between observed variables, also known as causal discovery. This is usually a daunting task, given the large number of candidate causal graphs and the combinatorial nature…
Without any assumptions about data generation, multiple causal models may explain our observations equally well. To avoid selecting a single arbitrary model that could result in unsafe decisions if it does not match reality, it is therefore…
Current approaches for modeling discrete-valued outcomes associated with spatially-dependent areal units incur computational and theoretical challenges, especially in the Bayesian setting when full posterior inference is desired. As an…
We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a…