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Model-based policy optimization often struggles with inaccurate system dynamics models, leading to suboptimal closed-loop performance. This challenge is especially evident in Model Predictive Control (MPC) policies, which rely on the model…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Riccardo Zuliani , Efe C. Balta , John Lygeros

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more…

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

In this article we propose a qualitative (ordinal) counterpart for the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes model (POMDP) in which the uncertainty, as well as the preferences of the agent, are modeled by possibility distributions.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Regis Sabbadin

Continuous-time Markov decision processes are an important class of models in a wide range of applications, ranging from cyber-physical systems to synthetic biology. A central problem is how to devise a policy to control the system in order…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Ezio Bartocci , Luca Bortolussi , Tomǎš Brázdil , Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti

Autonomous agents that drive on roads shared with human drivers must reason about the nuanced interactions among traffic participants. This poses a highly challenging decision making problem since human behavior is influenced by a multitude…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-30 Salar Arbabi , Davide Tavernini , Saber Fallah , Richard Bowden

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

We show that for several variations of partially observable Markov decision processes, polynomial-time algorithms for finding control policies are unlikely to or simply don't have guarantees of finding policies within a constant factor or a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 J. Goldsmith , C. Lusena , M. Mundhenk

This paper is concerned with planning in stochastic domains by means of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). POMDPs are difficult to solve. This paper identifies a subclass of POMDPs called region observable POMDPs,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Nevin Lianwen Zhang , Wenju Liu

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-15 Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Arnaud Doucet

Multi-objective optimization models that encode ordered sequential constraints provide a solution to model various challenging problems including encoding preferences, modeling a curriculum, and enforcing measures of safety. A recently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Kyle Hollins Wray , Stas Tiomkin , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Pieter Abbeel

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

Partial observability is a common challenge in many reinforcement learning applications, which requires an agent to maintain memory, infer latent states, and integrate this past information into exploration. This challenge leads to a number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Chi Jin , Sham M. Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Qinghua Liu

This paper describes sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with Borel state, observation, and action sets and with the expected total costs. Action sets may…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-02 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Michael Z. Zgurovsky

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

Autonomous agents are limited in their ability to observe the world state. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) formally model the problem of planning under world state uncertainty, but POMDPs with continuous actions and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Dicong Qiu , Yibiao Zhao , Chris L. Baker

We develop a qualitative theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs that can be used to model sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative information is available. Our approach is based upon an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Blai Bonet , Judea Pearl

This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-30 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Michael Z. Zgurovsky

Autonomous systems often have logical constraints arising, for example, from safety, operational, or regulatory requirements. Such constraints can be expressed using temporal logic specifications. The system state is often partially…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Krishna C. Kalagarla , Dhruva Kartik , Dongming Shen , Rahul Jain , Ashutosh Nayyar , Pierluigi Nuzzo