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We consider the problem of minimizing a certainty equivalent of the total or discounted cost over a finite and an infinite time horizon which is generated by a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). The certainty equivalent…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nicole Bäuerle , Ulrich Rieder

Bayesian Optimisation has gained much popularity lately, as a global optimisation technique for functions that are expensive to evaluate or unknown a priori. While classical BO focuses on where to gather an observation next, it does not…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-03-14 Philippe Morere , Roman Marchant , Fabio Ramos

Partially-Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are typically solved by finding an approximate global solution to a corresponding belief-MDP. In this paper, we offer a new planning algorithm for POMDPs with continuous state, action…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Tom Erez , William D. Smart

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a rich framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty in stochastic domains. However, solving a POMDP is often intractable except for small problems due to their…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-16 Stéphane Ross , Joelle Pineau , Sébastien Paquet , Brahim Chaib-draa

Many medical decision-making tasks can be framed as partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, prevailing two-stage approaches that first learn a POMDP and then solve it often fail because the model that best fits the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-01 Joseph Futoma , Michael C. Hughes , Finale Doshi-Velez

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-07 Jeremie Houssineau , Branko Ristic

This paper presents a simulation-based framework for sequential inference from partially and discretely observed point process (PP's) models with static parameters. Taking on a Bayesian perspective for the static parameters, we build upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-24 James S. Martin , Ajay Jasra , Emma McCoy

Decision-making under uncertainty is a crucial ability for autonomous systems. In its most general form, this problem can be formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). The solution policy of a POMDP can be…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Sung-Kyun Kim , Rohan Thakker , Ali-akbar Agha-mohammadi

This paper proposes an integration of temporal logical reasoning and Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) to achieve interpretable decision-making under uncertainty with macro-actions. Our method leverages a fragment of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Celeste Veronese , Daniele Meli , Alessandro Farinelli

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters

We study an approximation method for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous spaces. Belief MDP reduction, which has been the standard approach to study POMDPs requires rigorous approximation methods for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-20 Ali Devran Kara , Erhan Bayraktar , Serdar Yuksel

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Alessandro Lazaric , Animashree Anandkumar

This work presents self-rewarding sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an inference-time scaling algorithm enabling effective sampling of masked diffusion language models (MDLMs). Our algorithm stems from the observation that most existing MDLMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Ziwei Luo , Ziqi Jin , Lei Wang , Lidong Bing , Thomas B. Schön

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. Monte Carlo tree search with progressive widening attempts to improve scaling by sampling from the action space…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-04 John Mern , Anil Yildiz , Zachary Sunberg , Tapan Mukerji , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

To plan safely in uncertain environments, agents must balance utility with safety constraints. Safe planning problems can be modeled as a chance-constrained partially observable Markov decision process (CC-POMDP) and solutions often use…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Robert J. Moss , Arec Jamgochian , Johannes Fischer , Anthony Corso , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We consider the problem of optimally utilizing $N$ resources, each in an unknown binary state. The state of each resource can be inferred from state-dependent noisy measurements. Depending on its state, utilizing a resource results in…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-18 Lorenzo Ferrari , Qing Zhao , Anna Scaglione

Health-related data is noisy and stochastic in implying the true physiological states of patients, limiting information contained in single-moment observations for sequential clinical decision making. We model patient-clinician interactions…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Luchen Li , Matthieu Komorowski , Aldo A. Faisal

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu