Related papers: Bayesian Ensembling: Insights from Online Optimiza…
Dynamic and evolving operational and economic environments present significant challenges for decision-making. We explore a simulation optimization problem characterized by non-stationary input distributions with regime-switching dynamics…
This work explores use of novel advances in best subset selection for regression modelling via continuous optimization for offline change point detection and estimation in univariate Gaussian data sequences. The approach exploits…
Bayesian optimization has emerged as a strong candidate tool for global optimization of functions with expensive evaluation costs. However, due to the dynamic nature of research in Bayesian approaches, and the evolution of computing…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular global optimization scheme for sample-efficient optimization in domains with expensive function evaluations. The existing BO techniques are capable of finding a single global optimum solution.…
Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…
Insurance products frequently cover significant claims arising from a variety of sources. To model losses from these products accurately, actuarial models must account for high-severity claims. A widely used strategy is to apply a mixture…
This paper presents an information-theoretic framework for unifying active learning problems: level set estimation (LSE), Bayesian optimization (BO), and their generalized variant. We first introduce a novel active learning criterion that…
We consider Bayesian online static parameter estimation for state-space models. This is a very important problem, but is very computationally challenging as the state- of-the art methods that are exact, often have a computational cost that…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is one of the most powerful strategies to solve computationally expensive-to-evaluate blackbox optimization problems. However, BO methods are conventionally used for optimization problems of small dimension…
We consider Bayesian optimization of the output of a network of functions, where each function takes as input the output of its parent nodes, and where the network takes significant time to evaluate. Such problems arise, for example, in…
Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a typical approach to solve expensive optimization problems. In each iteration of BO, a Gaussian process(GP) model is trained using the previously evaluated solutions; then next candidate solutions for…
A wide spectrum of design and decision problems, including parameter tuning, A/B testing and drug design, intrinsically are instances of black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful tool that models and optimizes such…
This paper presents a novel approach to top-$k$ ranking Bayesian optimization (top-$k$ ranking BO) which is a practical and significant generalization of preferential BO to handle top-$k$ ranking and tie/indifference observations. We first…
Bayesian optimization is a class of data efficient model based algorithms typically focused on global optimization. We consider the more general case where a user is faced with multiple problems that each need to be optimized conditional on…
In this paper, we deal with batch Bayesian Optimization (Bayes-Opt) problems over a box and we propose a novel bi-objective optimization (BOO) acquisition strategy to sample points where to evaluate the objective function. The BOO problem…
Motivated by applications in digital health, this work studies the novel problem of online uniform sampling (OUS), where the goal is to distribute a sampling budget uniformly across unknown decision times. In the OUS problem, the algorithm…
Model selection is an integral problem of model based optimization techniques such as Bayesian optimization (BO). Current approaches often treat model selection as an estimation problem, to be periodically updated with observations coming…
We introduce a new recursive aggregation procedure called Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA). The exponential weights include an accuracy term and a second order term that is a proxy of the quadratic variation as in Hazan and Kale (2010).…
Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the…