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We study a linear contextual optimization problem where a decision maker has access to historical data and contextual features to learn a cost prediction model aimed at minimizing decision error. We adopt the predict-then-optimize framework…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Omar Bennouna , Jiawei Zhang , Saurabh Amin , Asuman Ozdaglar

Contextual bandit algorithms have transformed modern experimentation by enabling real-time adaptation for personalized treatment and efficient use of data. Yet these advantages create challenges for statistical inference due to adaptivity.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-22 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio , Lars Peter Hansen , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Aadirupa Saha , Branislav Kveton

We study contextual dynamic pricing under a semiparametric demand model in which the purchase probability is $1-F(p-m(\mathbf{x}))$, where $m(\mathbf{x})$ captures mean utility as a function of product features and buyer covariates, and $F$…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Jinhang Chai , Yaqi Duan , Jianqing Fan , Kaizheng Wang

We consider the exploration-exploitation tradeoff in linear quadratic (LQ) control problems, where the state dynamics is linear and the cost function is quadratic in states and controls. We analyze the regret of Thompson sampling (TS)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-28 Marc Abeille , Alessandro Lazaric

We consider a dynamic pricing problem under unknown demand models. In this problem a seller offers prices to a stream of customers and observes either success or failure in each sale attempt. The underlying demand model is unknown to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-30 Pouya Tehrani , Yixuan Zhai , Qing Zhao

The rapid deployment of Large Language Models and AI agents across critical societal and technical domains is hindered by persistent behavioral pathologies including sycophancy, hallucination, and strategic deception that resist mitigation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Xingcheng Xu , Jingjing Qu , Qiaosheng Zhang , Chaochao Lu , Yanqing Yang , Na Zou , Xia Hu

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Shikai Qiu , Tim G. J. Rudner , Sanyam Kapoor , Andrew Gordon Wilson

The Adversarial Markov Decision Process (AMDP) is a learning framework that deals with unknown and varying tasks in decision-making applications like robotics and recommendation systems. A major limitation of the AMDP formalism, however, is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Sang Bin Moon , Abolfazl Hashemi

Non-stationary multi-armed bandits (NS-MABs) model sequential decision-making problems in which the expected rewards of a set of actions, a.k.a.~arms, evolve over time. In this paper, we fill a gap in the literature by providing a novel…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-17 Marco Fiandri , Alberto Maria Metelli , Francesco Trovò

We study the sample complexity of online reinforcement learning in the general \hzyrev{non-episodic} setting of nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous state and action spaces. Our analysis accommodates a large class of dynamical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Michael Muehlebach , Zhiyu He , Michael I. Jordan

The theory of reinforcement learning currently suffers from a mismatch between its empirical performance and the theoretical characterization of its performance, with consequences for, e.g., the understanding of sample efficiency, safety,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-14 Feicheng Wang , Lucas Janson

We consider an online revenue maximization problem over a finite time horizon subject to lower and upper bounds on cost. At each period, an agent receives a context vector sampled i.i.d. from an unknown distribution and needs to make a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-21 Alfonso Lobos , Paul Grigas , Zheng Wen

Growing-dimensional data with likelihood unavailable are often encountered in various fields. This paper presents a penalized exponentially tilted likelihood (PETL) for variable selection and parameter estimation for growing dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-09 Nian-Sheng Tang , Xiao-Dong Yan , Pu-Ying Zhao

We study the dynamic regret of multi-armed bandit and experts problem in non-stationary stochastic environments. We introduce a new parameter $\Lambda$, which measures the total statistical variance of the loss distributions over $T$ rounds…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-24 Chen-Yu Wei , Yi-Te Hong , Chi-Jen Lu

The theory of reinforcement learning has focused on two fundamental problems: achieving low regret, and identifying $\epsilon$-optimal policies. While a simple reduction allows one to apply a low-regret algorithm to obtain an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Max Simchowitz , Kevin Jamieson

Cold-start exploration is a core challenge in large-scale recommender systems: new or data-sparse items must receive traffic to estimate value, but over-exploration harms users and wastes impressions. In practice, Thompson Sampling (TS) is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Zhenyu Zhao , David Zhang , Ellie Zhao , Ehsan Saberian

In recent years, significant attention has been directed towards learning average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). However, existing algorithms either suffer from sub-optimal regret guarantees or computational inefficiencies. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Victor Boone , Zihan Zhang

This paper studies identification and estimation of a class of dynamic models in which the decision maker (DM) is uncertain about the data-generating process. The DM surrounds a benchmark model that he or she fears is misspecified by a set…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-30 Timothy M. Christensen