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Given noisy, partial observations of a time-homogeneous, finite-statespace Markov chain, conceptually simple, direct statistical inference is available, in theory, via its rate matrix, or infinitesimal generator, $\mathsf{Q}$, since $\exp…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-23 Chris Sherlock

We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

The analysis of many problems of interest associated with Markov chains, e.g. stationary distributions, moments of first passage time distributions and moments of occupation time random variables, involves the solution of a system of linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-29 Jeffrey J. Hunter

We study random walk on complex networks with transition probabilities which depend on the current and previously visited nodes. By using an absorbing Markov chain we derive an exact expression for the mean first passage time between pairs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-11-14 Lasko Basnarkov , Miroslav Mirchev , Ljupco Kocarev

This paper aims at improving the convergence to equilibrium of finite ergodic Markov chains via permutations and projections. First, we prove that a specific mixture of permuted Markov chains arises naturally as a projection under the KL…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Michael C. H. Choi , Max Hird , Youjia Wang

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

This paper describes a data reduction technique in case of a markov chain of specified order. Instead of observing all the transitions in a markov chain we record only a few of them and treat the remaining part as missing. The decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Atanu Kumar Ghosh , Arnab Chakraborty

In this study, a new extension of the Markov Renewal theory is introduced by allowing time to evolve in multiple dimensions. The resulting chains are referred to as multi-time Markov Renewal chains and since this extension is new, the state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Leonidas Kordalis , Samis Trevezas

Markov chain model is widely applied in many fields, especially the field of prediction. The classical Discrete-time Markov chain(DTMC) is a widely used method for prediction. However, the classical DTMC model has some limitation when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-07 Zichang He , Wen Jiang

We develop a systematic matrix-analytic approach, based on intertwinings of Markov semigroups, for proving theorems about hitting-time distributions for finite-state Markov chains -- an approach that (sometimes) deepens understanding of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-04 James Allen Fill , Vince Lyzinski

We propose a two step strategy for estimating one-dimensional dynamical parameters of a quantum Markov chain, which involves quantum post-processing the output using a coherent quantum absorber and a "pattern counting'' estimator computed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-28 Federico Girotti , Alfred Godley , Mădălin Guţă

There are known expressions to calculate the moments of the first passage time in Markov chains. Nevertheless, it is commonly forgotten that in most applications the parameters of the Markov chain are constructed using estimates based upon…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-04 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…

Applications · Statistics 2009-10-12 Asger Hobolth , Eric A. Stone

We consider discrete-time Markov chains and study large deviations of the pair empirical occupation measure, which is useful to compute fluctuations of pure-additive and jump-type observables. We provide an exact expression for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-07-04 Giorgio Carugno , Pierpaolo Vivo , Francesco Coghi

In this paper, we study consistent and partially exchangeable sequences of Markov chains on a finite state space. We provide a characterisation of the admissible transition rates via a decomposition into individual and coordinated motion of…

We study perturbation theory and uniform ergodicity for discrete-time Markov chains on general state spaces in terms of the uniform moments of the first hitting times on some set. The methods we adopt are different from previous ones. For…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Yonghua Mao , Yanhong Song

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Minjun Kim , Seokhwan Moon , Jinsu Kim

We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-08 Andrea Bertazzi , Giorgos Vasdekis