Related papers: Discrete-time Markov chains with random observatio…
Network models have been popular for modeling and representing complex relationships and dependencies between observed variables. When data comes from a dynamic stochastic process, a single static network model cannot adequately capture…
We present an efficient finite difference method for the approximation of second derivatives, with respect to system parameters, of expectations for a class of discrete stochastic chemical reaction networks. The method uses a coupling of…
We consider the parameter estimation of Markov chain when the unknown transition matrix belongs to an exponential family of transition matrices. Then, we show that the sample mean of the generator of the exponential family is an…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic variance of sample path averages for inhomogeneous Markov chains that evolve alternatingly according to two different $\pi$-reversible Markov transition kernels $P$ and $Q$. More specifically, our main…
For many Markov chains of practical interest, the invariant distribution is extremely sensitive to perturbations of some entries of the transition matrix, but insensitive to others; we give an example of such a chain, motivated by a problem…
Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…
An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…
We introduce a class of continuous-time bivariate phase-type distributions for modeling dependencies from common shocks. The construction uses continuous-time Markov processes that evolve identically until an internal common-shock event,…
We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological…
The mixing time of a Markov chain determines how fast the iterates of the Markov chain converge to the stationary distribution; however, it does not control the dependencies between samples along the Markov chain. In this paper, we study…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
Let $(M,d,\mu)$ be a uniformly discrete metric measure space satisfying space homogeneous volume doubling condition. We consider discrete time Markov chains on $M$ symmetric with respect to $\mu$ and whose one-step transition density is…
There is a growing interest in methods for detecting and interpreting changes in experimental time evolution data. Based on measured time series, the quantitative characterization of dynamical phase transitions at bifurcation points of the…
We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…
This paper is devoted to the construction of a new fast-to-evaluate model for the prediction of 2D crack paths in concrete-like microstructures. The model generates piecewise linear cracks paths with segmentation points selected using a…
Modeling the time evolution of discrete sets of items (e.g., genetic mutations) is a fundamental problem in many biomedical applications. We approach this problem through the lens of continuous-time Markov chains, and show that the…
In this paper, we study first the problem of nonparametric estimation of the stationary density $f$ of a discrete-time Markov chain $(X_i)$. We consider a collection of projection estimators on finite dimensional linear spaces. We select an…