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In this work, we investigate uncertainty-aware neural network models for blood glucose prediction and adverse glycemic event identification in Type 1 diabetes. We consider three families of sequence models based on LSTM, GRU, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Hai Siong Tan , Rafe McBeth

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Uncertainty quantification in neural network promises to increase safety of AI systems, but it is not clear how performance might vary with the training set size. In this paper we evaluate seven uncertainty methods on Fashion MNIST and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Matias Valdenegro-Toro

While recent foundation models have enabled significant breakthroughs in monocular depth estimation, a clear path towards safe and reliable deployment in the real-world remains elusive. Metric depth estimation, which involves predicting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Steven Landgraf , Rongjun Qin , Markus Ulrich

Deep neural networks have shown great success in prediction quality while reliable and robust uncertainty estimation remains a challenge. Predictive uncertainty supplements model predictions and enables improved functionality of downstream…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-02 Johanna Rock , Tiago Azevedo , René de Jong , Daniel Ruiz-Muñoz , Partha Maji

Predicting particle trajectories with neural networks (NNs) has substantially enhanced many scientific and engineering domains. However, effectively quantifying and visualizing the inherent uncertainty in predictions remains challenging.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Jixian Li , Timbwaoga Aime Judicael Ouermi , Mengjiao Han , Chris R. Johnson

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's…

Uncertainty of labels in clinical data resulting from intra-observer variability can have direct impact on the reliability of assessments made by deep neural networks. In this paper, we propose a method for modelling such uncertainty in the…

Classifying variable stars is key for understanding stellar evolution and galactic dynamics. With the demands of large astronomical surveys, machine learning models, especially attention-based neural networks, have become the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Martina Cádiz-Leyton , Guillermo Cabrera-Vives , Pavlos Protopapas , Daniel Moreno-Cartagena , Cristobal Donoso-Oliva , Ignacio Becker

Blood pressure (BP) measurement is crucial for daily health assessment. Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG), which extracts pulse waves from face videos captured by a camera, has the potential to enable convenient BP measurement without…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Yusuke Akamatsu , Akinori F. Ebihara , Terumi Umematsu

The full acceptance of Deep Learning (DL) models in the clinical field is rather low with respect to the quantity of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. Particularly, end users are reluctant to rely on the rough…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-11 Benjamin Lambert , Florence Forbes , Alan Tucholka , Senan Doyle , Harmonie Dehaene , Michel Dojat

The opaque nature of transformer-based models, particularly in applications susceptible to unethical practices such as dark-patterns in user interfaces, requires models that integrate uncertainty quantification to enhance trust in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Javier Muñoz , Álvaro Huertas-García , Carlos Martí-González , Enrique De Miguel Ambite

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Deep learning methods for ophthalmic diagnosis have shown considerable success in tasks like segmentation and classification. However, their widespread application is limited due to the models being opaque and vulnerable to making a wrong…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-29 Amitojdeep Singh , Sourya Sengupta , Mohammed Abdul Rasheed , Varadharajan Jayakumar , Vasudevan Lakshminarayanan

Photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors allow for non-invasive and comfortable heart-rate (HR) monitoring, suitable for compact wrist-worn devices. Unfortunately, Motion Artifacts (MAs) severely impact the monitoring accuracy, causing high…

Whether wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) contains dietary information remains unknown. We trained a language model on 1.1M meals to predict meal descriptions from PPG, aligning PPG to text. PPG nontrivially predicts meal content;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Kyle Verrier , Achille Nazaret , Joseph Futoma , Andrew C. Miller , Guillermo Sapiro

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Spatially referenced datasets have become increasingly prevalent across many fields, largely driven by advances in data collection methods such as satellite remote sensing. In many applications, predictions at unobserved locations are…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Isaac Amouzou , Ben Seiyon Lee

Uncertainty quantification in a neural network is one of the most discussed topics for safety-critical applications. Though Neural Networks (NNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many applications, they still provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Mehedi Hasan , Abbas Khosravi , Ibrahim Hossain , Ashikur Rahman , Saeid Nahavandi

Photoplethysmography is a non-invasive optical technique that measures changes in blood volume within tissues. It is commonly and increasingly used for in a variety of research and clinical application to assess vascular dynamics and…

Medical Physics · Physics 2023-09-26 Marton A. Goda , Peter H. Charlton , Joachim A. Behar
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