Related papers: Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction
Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, offering reliable predictions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. When applied to classification, CP produces a prediction set of…
Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…
We consider the problem of inferring the values of an arbitrary set of variables (e.g., risk of diseases) given other observed variables (e.g., symptoms and diagnosed diseases) and high-dimensional signals (e.g., MRI images or EEG). This is…
Predictions for physical systems often rely upon knowledge acquired from ensembles of entities, e.g., ensembles of cells in biological sciences. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, these ensembles are simulated with parametric…
A notable result from analysis of Boolean functions is the Basic Invariance Principle (BIP), a quantitative nonlinear generalization of the Central Limit Theorem for multilinear polynomials. We present a generalization of the BIP for…
While there have been a lot of recent developments in the context of Bayesian model selection and variable selection for high dimensional linear models, there is not much work in the presence of change point in literature, unlike the…
Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…
In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…
In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…
Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…
We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…
We derive a new Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) by formulating the problem of estimating the number of clusters in an observed data set as maximization of the posterior probability of the candidate models. Given that some mild…
Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical priors are highly effective in providing flexible models for latent data structures exhibiting sharing of information within and across groups. In this work, we focus on latent feature allocation models,…
We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…
Independence-based (IB) assignments to Bayesian belief networks were originally proposed as abductive explanations. IB assignments assign fewer variables in abductive explanations than do schemes assigning values to all evidentially…
Planning can often be simpli ed by decomposing the task into smaller tasks arranged hierarchically. Charlin et al. [4] recently showed that the hierarchy discovery problem can be framed as a non-convex optimization problem. However, the…
Hierarchical Gaussian Process (H-GP) models divide problems into different subtasks, allowing for different models to address each part, making them well-suited for problems with inherent hierarchical structure. However, typical H-GP models…
We develop an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the cell means in an unbalanced, two-way additive model with fixed effects. We employ a hierarchical model, which reflects exchangeability of the effects within treatment and within…
Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…
In this paper, we consider a Bayesian bi-level variable selection problem in high-dimensional regressions. In many practical situations, it is natural to assign group membership to each predictor. Examples include that genetic variants can…