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The Difference in Difference (DiD) estimator is a popular estimator built on the "parallel trends" assumption, which is an assertion that the treatment group, absent treatment, would change "similarly" to the control group over time. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Dae Woong Ham , Luke Miratrix

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Arman Oganisian , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

Estimating varying treatment effects in randomized trials with noncompliance is inherently challenging since variation comes from two separate sources: variation in the impact itself and variation in the compliance rate. In this setting,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-28 Jared D. Fisher , David W. Puelz , Sameer K. Deshpande

In this paper, we propose DiFF-RF, an ensemble approach composed of random partitioning binary trees to detect point-wise and collective (as well as contextual) anomalies. Thanks to a distance-based paradigm used at the leaves of the trees,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Pierre-Francois Marteau

Difference-in-differences (DID) is a method to evaluate the effect of a treatment. In its basic version, a "control group" is untreated at two dates, whereas a "treatment group" becomes fully treated at the second date. However, in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Clement de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfoeuille

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Gözde Sert , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Anirban Bhattacharya

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-08 Michael Lechner

Treatment effect heterogeneity is central to policy evaluation, social science, and precision medicine, where interventions can affect individuals differently. In observational studies, covariates, treatment, and outcomes are often only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Shuozhi Zuo , Yixin Wang , Fan Yang

In this paper, we develop inference methods for the distribution of heterogeneous individual treatment effects (ITEs) in the nonseparable triangular model with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrument of Vuong and Xu (2017) and…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-22 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Zhengfei Yu

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Causal decomposition analysis (CDA) is an approach for modeling the impact of hypothetical interventions to reduce disparities. It is useful for identifying foci that future interventions, including multilevel and multimodal interventions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 John W. Jackson , Ting-Hsuan Chang , Aster Meche , Trang Q. Nguyen

Applied analysts often use the differences-in-differences (DID) method to estimate the causal effect of policy interventions with observational data. The method is widely used, as the required before and after comparison of a treated and…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-04 Luke J. Keele , Dylan S. Small , Jesse Y. Hsu , Colin B. Fogarty

Causal random forests provide efficient estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects. However, forest algorithms are also well-known for their black-box nature, and therefore, do not characterize how input variables are involved in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Clément Bénard , Julie Josse

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Jeffrey Näf , Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Many policy evaluations involve vectors of category-specific quantities, either categorical outcomes (e.g., employment type, major choice) or compositional measures (e.g., GDP by sector, votes by party, electricity generation by source). In…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-19 Onil Boussim

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Cat P. Le , Vahid Tarokh