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Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

This paper studies identification and estimation of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-difference (DID) designs when the variable that classifies individuals into treatment and control groups (treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-08-05 Akanksha Negi , Digvijay Singh Negi

Estimates of heterogeneous treatment assignment effects can inform treatment decisions. Under the presence of non-adherence (e.g., patients do not adhere to their assigned treatment), both the standard backdoor adjustment (SBD) and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Winston Chen , Trenton Chang , Jenna Wiens

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Bayesian causal inference offers a principled approach to policy evaluation of proposed interventions on mediators or time-varying exposures. We outline a general approach to the estimation of causal quantities for settings with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Leah Comment , Brent A. Coull , Corwin Zigler , Linda Valeri

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Vik Shirvaikar , Andrea Storås , Xi Lin , Chris Holmes

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Masahiro Kato

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are increasingly estimated from observational data and used to guide policy and individualized treatment decisions. Before such estimates can be trusted in practice, their predictive fitness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Bosen Cui , Yuhong Yang

This paper addresses one of the most prevalent problems encountered by political scientists working with difference-in-differences (DID) design: missingness in panel data. A common practice for handling missing data, known as complete case…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Sooahn Shin

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in domains such as healthcare or social science often involves sensitive data where protecting privacy is important. We introduce a general meta-algorithm for estimating conditional average…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-23 Fengshi Niu , Harsha Nori , Brian Quistorff , Rich Caruana , Donald Ngwe , Aadharsh Kannan

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

Understanding causal relationships between variables is fundamental across scientific disciplines. Most causal discovery algorithms rely on two key assumptions: (i) all variables are observed, and (ii) the underlying causal graph is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Muralikrishnna G. Sethuraman , Faramarz Fekri

Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-18 Adam Baybutt , Manu Navjeevan

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-20 Leo L. Duan , John P. Clancy , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

State-level policy studies often conduct heterogeneity analyses that quantify how treatment effects vary across state characteristics. These analyses may be used to inform state-specific policy decisions, or to infer how the effect of a…

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

This article proposes doubly robust estimators for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DID) research designs. In contrast to alternative DID estimators, the proposed estimators are consistent if…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Jun B. Zhao

Finding the features relevant to the difference in treatment effects is essential to unveil the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing methods seek such features by measuring how greatly the feature attributes affect the degree of the {\it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Yoichi Chikahara , Makoto Yamada , Hisashi Kashima