English
Related papers

Related papers: Counterfactual Strategies for Markov Decision Proc…

200 papers

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

A constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) approach is developed for response-adaptive procedures in clinical trials with binary outcomes. The resulting CMDP class of Bayesian response -- adaptive procedures can be used to target a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Stef Baas , Aleida Braaksma , Richard J. Boucherie

Much recent research in decision theoretic planning has adopted Markov decision processes (MDPs) as the model of choice, and has attempted to make their solution more tractable by exploiting problem structure. One particular algorithm,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Craig Boutilier

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-19 Yue Wang , Yao Wan , Chenwei Zhang , Lixin Cui , Lu Bai , Philip S. Yu

We introduce $\textit{PCFTL (Probabilistic CounterFactual Temporal Logic)}$, a new probabilistic temporal logic for the verification of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). PCFTL is the first to include operators for causal reasoning, allowing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Milad Kazemi , Nicola Paoletti

This paper discusses algorithms for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs) that have monotone optimal policies. We propose a two-stage alternating convex optimization scheme that can accelerate the search for an optimal policy by…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-04-04 Robert Mattila , Cristian R. Rojas , Vikram Krishnamurthy , Bo Wahlberg

Sequential Recommender Systems (SRSs) have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in capturing users' evolving preferences. However, their inherent complexity as "black box" models poses significant challenges for explainability. This work…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Domiziano Scarcelli , Filippo Betello , Giuseppe Perelli , Fabrizio Silvestri , Gabriele Tolomei

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Many problems in sequential decision making and stochastic control often have natural multiscale structure: sub-tasks are assembled together to accomplish complex goals. Systematically inferring and leveraging hierarchical structure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-06 Jake Bouvrie , Mauro Maggioni

Being able to provide counterfactual interventions - sequences of actions we would have had to take for a desirable outcome to happen - is essential to explain how to change an unfavourable decision by a black-box machine learning model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Giovanni De Toni , Bruno Lepri , Andrea Passerini

Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for many applications such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-24 Houssam Zenati , Alberto Bietti , Matthieu Martin , Eustache Diemert , Pierre Gaillard , Julien Mairal

Markov Decision Process (MDP) is the underlying model for optimal planning for decision-theoretic agents in stochastic environments. Although much research focuses on solving MDP problems both in tabular form or using factored…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Daniela Kuinchtner , Afonso Sales , Felipe Meneguzzi

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), the mathematical framework underlying most algorithms in Reinforcement Learning (RL), are often used in a way that wrongfully assumes that the state of an agent's environment does not change during action…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Simon Ramstedt , Christopher Pal

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 David Tolpin

In this paper, we consider solving discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) under the constraint that the resulting policy is stabilizing. In practice MDPs are solved based on some form of policy approximation. We will leverage recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Mario Zanon , Sébastien Gros , Michele Palladino

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive…

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are an effective way to formally describe many Machine Learning problems. In fact, recently MDPs have also emerged as a powerful framework to model financial trading tasks. For example, financial MDPs can…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Diego Pino , Javier García , Fernando Fernández , Svitlana S Vyetrenko

Dynamic optimization of mean and variance in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is a long-standing challenge caused by the failure of dynamic programming. In this paper, we propose a new approach to find the globally optimal policy for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-28 Li Xia , Shuai Ma