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Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Adriel Sosa Marco , John Daniel Kirwan , Alexia Toumpa , Simos Gerasimou

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are able to model complicated distributions p(y) with strong inter-dimensional correlations and high multimodality by transforming a simple base density p(z) through an invertible neural network under the change of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Christina Winkler , Daniel Worrall , Emiel Hoogeboom , Max Welling

Human Pose Estimation (HPE) is increasingly important for applications like virtual reality and motion analysis, yet current methods struggle with balancing accuracy, computational efficiency, and reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ).…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Shipeng Liu , Ziliang Xiong , Bastian Wandt , Per-Erik Forssén

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Hao Wu , Jonas Köhler , Frank Noé

Quantifying uncertainty in medical image segmentation applications is essential, as it is often connected to vital decision-making. Compelling attempts have been made in quantifying the uncertainty in image segmentation architectures, e.g.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-06 M. M. A. Valiuddin , C. G. A. Viviers , R. J. G. van Sloun , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Lucas Berry , David Meger

Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) have emerged as promising deep generative models for a wide range of tasks thanks to their invertibility and exact likelihood estimation. However, conditioning CNFs on signals of interest for conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-10 Tan M. Nguyen , Animesh Garg , Richard G. Baraniuk , Anima Anandkumar

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are emerging as a powerful class of generative models, as they not only allow for efficient sampling, but also deliver, by construction, density estimation. They are of great potential usage in High Energy Physics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-01 Humberto Reyes-Gonzalez , Riccardo Torre

Density regression models allow a comprehensive understanding of data by modeling the complete conditional probability distribution. While flexible estimation approaches such as normalizing flows (NF) work particularly well in multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Marcel Arpogaus , Thomas Kneib , Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

Conditional Normalizing Flows (CNFs) are flexible generative models capable of representing complicated distributions with high dimensionality and large interdimensional correlations, making them appealing for structured output learning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Mohsen Zand , Ali Etemad , Michael Greenspan

This paper introduces temporal-conditioned normalizing flows (tcNF), a novel framework that addresses anomaly detection in time series data with accurate modeling of temporal dependencies and uncertainty. By conditioning normalizing flows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 David Baumgartner , Helge Langseth , Kenth Engø-Monsen , Heri Ramampiaro

Normalizing Flows (NF) are Generative models which transform a simple prior distribution into the desired target. They however require the design of an invertible mapping whose Jacobian determinant has to be computable. Recently introduced,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Vincent Souveton , Arnaud Guillin , Jens Jasche , Guilhem Lavaux , Manon Michel

Machine learning techniques are becoming an integral component of data analysis in High Energy Physics (HEP). These tools provide a significant improvement in sensitivity over traditional analyses by exploiting subtle patterns in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-10-04 Aishik Ghosh , Benjamin Nachman , Daniel Whiteson

Two fundamental problems in unsupervised learning are efficient inference for latent-variable models and robust density estimation based on large amounts of unlabeled data. Algorithms for the two tasks, such as normalizing flows and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-02 Changyou Chen , Chunyuan Li , Liqun Chen , Wenlin Wang , Yunchen Pu , Lawrence Carin

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) are a class of generative models that transform a prior distribution to a model distribution by solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). We propose to train CNFs on manifolds by minimizing…

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-04-18 Eli Gendreau-Distler , Luc Le Pottier , Haichen Wang

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) are a generative method for learning probability distributions, which is based on ordinary differential equations. This method has shown remarkable empirical success across various applications, including…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Yuan Gao , Jian Huang , Yuling Jiao , Shurong Zheng

Causal inconsistency arises when the underlying causal graphs captured by generative models like \textit{Normalizing Flows} (NFs) are inconsistent with those specified in causal models like \textit{Struct Causal Models} (SCMs). This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Qingyang Zhou , Kangjie Lu , Meng Xu
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