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Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong

We propose the Uncertainty Contrastive Framework (UCF), a Positive-Unlabeled (PU) representation learning framework that integrates uncertainty-aware contrastive loss, adaptive temperature scaling, and a self-attention-guided LSTM encoder…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Elias Hossain , Umesh Biswas , Charan Gudla , Sai Phani Parsa

An open scientific challenge is how to classify events with reliable measures of uncertainty, when we have a mechanistic model of the data-generating process but the distribution over both labels and latent nuisance parameters is different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-02 Luca Masserano , Alex Shen , Michele Doro , Tommaso Dorigo , Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee

The normalization constraint on probability density poses a significant challenge for solving the Fokker-Planck equation. Normalizing Flow, an invertible generative model leverages the change of variables formula to ensure probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Feng Liu , Faguo Wu , Xiao Zhang

Conditional Neural Processes~(CNPs) bridge neural networks with probabilistic inference to approximate functions of Stochastic Processes under meta-learning settings. Given a batch of non-{\it i.i.d} function instantiations, CNPs are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Zesheng Ye , Lina Yao

The Normalizing Flow (NF) models a general probability density by estimating an invertible transformation applied on samples drawn from a known distribution. We introduce a new type of NF, called Deep Diffeomorphic Normalizing Flow (DDNF).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-26 Hadi Salman , Payman Yadollahpour , Tom Fletcher , Kayhan Batmanghelich

Self-supervised contrastive learning has predominantly adopted deterministic methods, which are not suited for environments characterized by uncertainty and noise. This paper introduces a new perspective on incorporating uncertainty into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Hongwei Bran Li , Cheng Ouyang , Tamaz Amiranashvili , Matthew S. Rosen , Bjoern Menze , Juan Eugenio Iglesias

Contrastive approaches to representation learning have recently shown great promise. In contrast to generative approaches, these contrastive models learn a deterministic encoder with no notion of uncertainty or confidence. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Mike Wu , Noah Goodman

Normalising flows (NFs) for discrete data are challenging because parameterising bijective transformations of discrete variables requires predicting discrete/integer parameters. Having a neural network architecture predict discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-12 Rob Hesselink , Wilker Aziz

Tuning of measurement models is challenging in real-world applications of sequential Monte Carlo methods. Recent advances in differentiable particle filters have led to various efforts to learn measurement models through neural networks.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Xiongjie Chen , Yunpeng Li

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

By chaining a sequence of differentiable invertible transformations, normalizing flows (NF) provide an expressive method of posterior approximation, exact density evaluation, and sampling. The trend in normalizing flow literature has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Robert Giaquinto , Arindam Banerjee

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Paweł Lorek , Rafał Nowak , Rafał Topolnicki , Tomasz Trzciński , Maciej Zięba , Aleksandra Krystecka

Computational chemistry has come a long way over the course of several decades, enabling subatomic level calculations particularly with the development of Density Functional Theory (DFT). Recently, machine-learned potentials (MLP) have…

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are a class of generative models distinguished by a mathematically invertible architecture, where the forward pass transforms data into a latent space for density estimation, and the reverse pass generates new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Yang Chen , Xiaowei Xu , Shuai Wang , Chenhui Zhu , Ruxue Wen , Xubin Li , Tiezheng Ge , Limin Wang

In high energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF), predictive modeling is complicated by uncertainty in parameters that characterize various aspects of the modeled system, such as those characterizing material…

When fine-tuning Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to new data, DNNs are prone to overwriting network parameters required for task-specific functionality on previously learned tasks, resulting in a loss of performance on those tasks. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Christopher Angelini , Nidhal Bouaynaya

Turbulent flows are of central importance across applications in science and engineering problems. For design and analysis, scientists and engineers use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations using turbulence models. Turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-10-18 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in streamflow along with uncertainty quantification enables decision-making for sustainable management of scarce water resources. Process-based hydrological models (aka physics-based models) are based…

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Alexander Möllers , Alexander Immer , Elvin Isufi , Vincent Fortuin