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The large integration of variable energy resources is expected to shift a large part of the energy exchanges closer to real-time, where more accurate forecasts are available. In this context, the short-term electricity markets and in…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Ioannis Boukas , Damien Ernst , Thibaut Théate , Adrien Bolland , Alexandre Huynen , Martin Buchwald , Christelle Wynants , Bertrand Cornélusse

We construct the maximally predictable portfolio (MPP) of stocks using machine learning. Solving for the optimal constrained weights in the multi-asset MPP gives portfolios with a high monthly coefficient of determination, given the sample…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-06 Michael Pinelis , David Ruppert

Volume imbalance in a limit order book is often considered as a reliable indicator for predicting future price moves. In this work, we seek to analyse the nuances of the relationship between prices and volume imbalance. To this end, we…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-24 Sergio Pulido , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Emmanouil Sfendourakis

We inspect how accurate machine learning (ML) is at forecasting realized variance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index constituents. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, and neural networks, to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Kim Christensen , Mathias Siggaard , Bezirgen Veliyev

Modeling the trading volume curves of financial instruments throughout the day is of key interest in financial trading applications. Predictions of these so-called volume profiles guide trade execution strategies, for example, a common…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-01 Creighton Heaukulani , Abhinav Pandey , Lancelot F. James

Designing an intelligent volume-weighted average price (VWAP) strategy is a critical concern for brokers, since traditional rule-based strategies are relatively static that cannot achieve a lower transaction cost in a dynamic market. Many…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-02 Xiaodong Li , Pangjing Wu , Chenxin Zou , Qing Li

Forecasting the movements of stock prices is one the most challenging problems in financial markets analysis. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of future price movements using limit order book data.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Paraskevi Nousi , Avraam Tsantekidis , Nikolaos Passalis , Adamantios Ntakaris , Juho Kanniainen , Anastasios Tefas , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

With the ever increasing prominence of data in retail operations, sales forecasting has become an essential pillar in the efficient management of inventories. When facing high demand, the use of backroom storage and intraday shelf…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-17 Marc-Olivier Boldi , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Gallay

The importance of considering the volumes to analyze stock prices movements can be considered as a well-accepted practice in the financial area. However, when we look at the scientific production in this field, we still cannot find a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-31 Tiago Colliri , Fernando F. Ferreira

Predicting the intraday stock jumps is a significant but challenging problem in finance. Due to the instantaneity and imperceptibility characteristics of intraday stock jumps, relevant studies on their predictability remain limited. This…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-17 Ao Kong , Hongliang Zhu , Robert Azencott

In this paper, the Kyle model of insider trading is extended by characterizing the trading volume with long memory and allowing the noise trading volatility to follow a general stochastic process. Under this newly revised model, the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-08 Ben-zhang Yang , Xinjiang He , Nan-jing Huang

Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-31 Marcelo Sardelich , Suresh Manandhar

It has been long that literature in financial academics focuses mainly on price and return but much less on trading volume. In the past twenty years, it has already linked both price and trading volume to economic fundamentals, and explored…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-10 Leilei Shi , Bing Han , Yingzi Zhu , Liyan Han , Yiwen Wang , Yan Piao

This article comes up with an intraday trading strategy under T+1 using Markowitz optimization and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) with published stock data obtained from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange. The empirical…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-26 Q. Wang , Y. Zhou , J. Shen

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-13 Himanshu Gupta , Aditya Jaiswal

The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-03 Jieyu Chen , Sebastian Lerch , Melanie Schienle , Tomasz Serafin , Rafał Weron

Sophisticated machine learning (ML) models to inform trading in the financial sector create problems of interpretability and risk management. Seemingly robust forecasting models may behave erroneously in out of distribution settings. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Gabriel Deza , Adelin Travers , Colin Rowat , Nicolas Papernot

Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-09 Fernando Moreno-Pino , Stefan Zohren

We use machine learning for designing a medium frequency trading strategy for a portfolio of 5 year and 10 year US Treasury note futures. We formulate this as a classification problem where we predict the weekly direction of movement of the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-22 Abhijit Sharang , Chetan Rao

Econophysics and econometrics agree that there is a correlation between volume and volatility in a time series. Using empirical data and their distributions, we further investigate this correlation and discover new ways that volatility and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-21 Zeyu Zheng , Zhi Qiao , Joel N. Tenenbaum , H. Eugene Stanley , Baowen Li