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We offer straightforward theoretical results that justify incorporating machine learning in the standard linear instrumental variable setting. The key idea is to use machine learning, combined with sample-splitting, to predict the treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Jiafeng Chen , Daniel L. Chen , Greg Lewis

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Rahul Singh , Maneesh Sahani , Arthur Gretton

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding between exposure and outcome. An IV must affect the outcome exclusively through the exposure and be unconfounded with the…

The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

We propose a weak-identification-robust test for linear instrumental variable (IV) regressions with high-dimensional instruments, whose number is allowed to exceed the sample size. In addition, our test is robust to general error…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-01 Qu Feng , Sombut Jaidee , Wenjie Wang

We suggest two nonparametric approaches, based on kernel methods and orthogonal series to estimating regression functions in the presence of instrumental variables. For the first time in this class of problems, we derive optimal convergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Hall , Joel L. Horowitz

We consider the problem of estimating the structural function in nonparametric instrumental regression, where in the presence of an instrument W a response Y is modeled in dependence of an endogenous explanatory variable Z. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jan Johannes , Maik Schwarz

This paper studies the identification and estimation of the optimal linear approximation of a structural regression function. The parameter in the linear approximation is called the Optimal Linear Instrumental Variables Approximation…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-06 Juan Carlos Escanciano , Wei Li

This paper extends the identification results in Nevo and Rosen (2012) to nonparametric models. We derive nonparametric bounds on the average treatment effect when an imperfect instrument is available. As in Nevo and Rosen (2012), we assume…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-01 Kyunghoon Ban , Désiré Kédagni

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

The error or variability of machine learning algorithms is often assessed by repeatedly re-fitting a model with different weighted versions of the observed data. The ubiquitous tools of cross-validation (CV) and the bootstrap are examples…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Ryan Giordano , Will Stephenson , Runjing Liu , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Elisabeth Ailer , Jason Hartford , Niki Kilbertus

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Hyunseung Kang , Youjin Lee , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

We consider the estimation of a structural function which models a non-parametric relationship between a response and an endogenous regressor given an instrument in presence of dependence in the data generating process. Assuming an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-08 Nicolas Asin , Jan Johannes

We study categorical instrumental variable (IV) models with instrument, treatment, and outcome taking finitely many values. We derive a simple closed-form characterization of the set of joint distributions of potential outcomes that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Yilin Song , F. Richard Guo , K. C. Gary Chan , Thomas S. Richardson

In this paper, we clarify the relations between the existing sets of regularity conditions for convergence rates of nonparametric indirect regression (NPIR) and nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) regression models. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-14 Xiaohong Chen , Markus Reiss

This paper considers inference on functionals of semi/nonparametric conditional moment restrictions with possibly nonsmooth generalized residuals, which include all of the (nonlinear) nonparametric instrumental variables (IV) as special…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Xiaohong Chen , Demian Pouzo

In this study, we explore the partial identification of nonseparable models with continuous endogenous and binary instrumental variables. We show that the structural function is partially identified when it is monotone or concave in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Takuya Ishihara