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We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for inequality (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-08 Christoph Breunig , Xiaohong Chen

We consider a nonparametric regression model with continuous endogenous independent variables when only discrete instruments are available that are independent of the error term. Although this framework is very relevant for applied…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-18 Samuele Centorrino , Frédérique Fève , Jean-Pierre Florens

This paper introduces a class of jackknife-based test statistics for linear regression models with endogeneity and heteroskedasticity in the presence of many potentially weak instrumental variables. The tests may be used when considering…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-20 Federico Crudu , Giovanni Mellace , Zsolt Sándor

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Yuchen Zhu , Limor Gultchin , Arthur Gretton , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva

When primary objectives are insensitive or delayed, experimenters may instead focus on proxy metrics derived from secondary outcomes. For example, technology companies often infer the long-term impacts of product interventions from their…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Aurélien Bibaut , Winston Chou , Simon Ejdemyr , Nathan Kallus

This paper presents a simple method for carrying out inference in a wide variety of possibly nonlinear IV models under weak assumptions. The method is non-asymptotic in the sense that it provides a finite sample bound on the difference…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-09-12 Joel L. Horowitz

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

This paper addresses the weak instruments problem in linear instrumental variable models from a Bayesian perspective. The new approach has two components. First, a novel predictor-dependent shrinkage prior is developed for the many…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-05 P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert Lopes

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. Recently, many flexible machine learning methods have been developed for instrumental variable estimation. However, these methods have at least one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-13 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Whitney Newey , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Masatoshi Uehara

The ill-posedness of the inverse problem of recovering a regression function in a nonparametric instrumental variable model leads to estimators that may suffer from a very slow, logarithmic rate of convergence. In this paper, we show that…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-27 Denis Chetverikov , Daniel Wilhelm

We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is purpose-built for leveraging exogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-18 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , Peter Hull , Michal Kolesár

We consider the nonparametric estimation problem of time-dependent multivariate functions observed in a presence of additive cylindrical Gaussian white noise of a small intensity. We derive minimax lower bounds for the $L^2$-risk in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Jérémie Bigot , Theofanis Sapatinas

We study the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We recast the $Q$-function estimation into a special form of the nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Xiaohong Chen , Zhengling Qi

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

Instrumental variable methods are among the most commonly used causal inference approaches to deal with unmeasured confounders in observational studies. The presence of invalid instruments is the primary concern for practical applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Zijian Guo

We propose a framework, the Neyman Jackknife, for conservative variance estimation in finite-population causal inference under interference. Our approach provides a general, flexible blueprint that enables conservative variance estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Bryan Park , Stefan Wager

Limited-information inference on New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs) and other single-equation macroeconomic relations is characterised by weak and high-dimensional instrumental variables (IVs). Beyond the efficiency concerns previously…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-23 Max-Sebastian Dovì

We provide a convergence analysis of deep feature instrumental variable (DFIV) regression (Xu et al., 2021), a nonparametric approach to IV regression using data-adaptive features learned by deep neural networks in two stages. We prove that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-10 Juno Kim , Dimitri Meunier , Arthur Gretton , Taiji Suzuki , Zhu Li

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Miruna Oprescu , Brian M Cho , Nathan Kallus