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In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the expected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized controlled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-24 Dennis Frauen , Tobias Hatt , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

Spatial interference (SI) occurs when the treatment at one location affects the outcomes at other locations. Accounting for spatial interference in spatiotemporal settings poses further challenges as interference violates the stable unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Sahara Ali , Omar Faruque , Jianwu Wang

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

This paper analyzes difference-in-differences designs with a continuous treatment. We show that treatment-on-the-treated-type parameters are identified under a parallel trends assumption analogous to the binary treatment case. However,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Brantly Callaway , Andrew Goodman-Bacon , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

This paper studies the estimation and inference for the isotonic regression at the boundary point, an object that is particularly interesting and required in the analysis of monotone regression discontinuity designs. We show that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Andrii Babii , Rohit Kumar

We present a novel approach for extrapolating causal effects away from the margin between treatment and non-treatment in sharp regression discontinuity designs with multiple covariates. Our methods apply both to settings in which treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Ben Deaner , Soonwoo Kwon

It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We consider treatment-effect estimation with a two-periods panel, where units are untreated at period one, and receive strictly positive doses at period two. First, we consider designs with some quasi-untreated units, with a period-two dose…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-02 Clément de Chaisemartin , Diego Ciccia , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Felix Knau

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to identify and estimate the causal effect of a treatment using observational data. In an RDD, a pre-specified rule is used for treatment assignment,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-05 Panayiota Constantinou , Aidan G. O'Keeffe

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman