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Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical framework that generates prediction intervals or sets with guaranteed coverage probability. While CP algorithms have evolved beyond traditional classifiers and regressors to sophisticated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Jianguo Huang , Jianqing Song , Xuanning Zhou , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

Since the proliferation of LLMs, there have been concerns about their misuse for harmful content creation and spreading. Recent studies justify such fears, providing evidence of LLM vulnerabilities and high potential of their misuse. Humans…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Dominik Macko , Robert Moro , Ivan Srba

Recent advances in computer vision have made training object detectors more efficient and effective; however, assessing their performance in real-world applications still relies on costly manual annotation. To address this limitation, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Seungju Yoo , Hyuk Kwon , Joong-Won Hwang , Kibok Lee

While fine-tuning services drive the rapid expansion of task capabilities in large language models (LLMs), they are often accompanied by the degradation and reorganization of safety-aligned representations, making models more prone to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Bing Han , Feifei Zhao , Dongcheng Zhao , Guobin Shen , Ping Wu , Yu Shi , Yi Zeng

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

With the advent of fluent generative language models that can produce convincing utterances very similar to those written by humans, distinguishing whether a piece of text is machine-generated or human-written becomes more challenging and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Niloofar Mireshghallah , Justus Mattern , Sicun Gao , Reza Shokri , Taylor Berg-Kirkpatrick

The growing prevalence of large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) has heightened the need for reliable techniques to determine whether a model has been fine-tuned from or is even identical to another. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Ruibo Chen , Sheng Zhang , Yihan Wu , Tong Zheng , Peihua Mai , Heng Huang

Large Language Models have shown growing ability to generate fluent and coherent texts that are highly similar to the writing style of humans. Current detectors for Machine-Generated Text (MGT) perform well when they are trained and tested…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Shengchao Liu , Xiaoming Liu , Chengzhengxu Li , Zhaohan Zhang , Guoxin Ma , Yu Lan , Shuai Xiao

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-13 Isidro Cortés-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Conformal Predictors (CP) are wrappers around ML models, providing error guarantees under weak assumptions on the data distribution. They are suitable for a wide range of problems, from classification and regression to anomaly detection.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-06 Giovanni Cherubin , Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis , Martin Jaggi

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

General large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have shown remarkable success, but it has also raised concerns among people about the misuse of AI-generated texts. Therefore, an important question is how to detect whether the texts are…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Rongsheng Wang , Qi Li , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Xiaoyi Su , Zhixin Zhou , Rui Luo

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yuanjie Shi , Hooman Shahrokhi , Xuesong Jia , Xiongzhi Chen , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan
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