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Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Recent advancements in Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled the creation of highly realistic synthetic content, raising concerns about the potential for malicious use, such as misinformation and manipulation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Andrea Pedrotti , Michele Papucci , Cristiano Ciaccio , Alessio Miaschi , Giovanni Puccetti , Felice Dell'Orletta , Andrea Esuli

Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

In the era of large language models generating high quality texts, it is a necessity to develop methods for detection of machine-generated text to avoid harmful use or simply due to annotation purposes. It is, however, also important to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Michal Spiegel , Dominik Macko

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

Successful application of machine learning models to real-world prediction problems, e.g. financial forecasting and personalized medicine, has proved to be challenging, because such settings require limiting and quantifying the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Yao Zhang , William Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) and the huge amount of text they generated, it becomes more and more impractical to manually distinguish whether a text is machine-generated. Given the growing use of LLMs in social…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Jinyan Su , Terry Yue Zhuo , Di Wang , Preslav Nakov

Nowadays, powerful large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have demonstrated revolutionary power in a variety of tasks. Consequently, the detection of machine-generated texts (MGTs) is becoming increasingly crucial as LLMs become more…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Xinlei He , Xinyue Shen , Zeyuan Chen , Michael Backes , Yang Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have exhibited remarkable performance in generating human-like texts. However, machine-generated texts (MGTs) may carry critical risks, such as plagiarism issues, misleading information, or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Shuhai Zhang , Yiliao Song , Jiahao Yang , Yuanqing Li , Bo Han , Mingkui Tan

Large language models (LLMs) have grown more powerful in language generation, producing fluent text and even imitating personal style. Yet, this ability also heightens the risk of identity impersonation. To the best of our knowledge, no…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Lang Gao , Xuhui Li , Chenxi Wang , Mingzhe Li , Wei Liu , Zirui Song , Jinghui Zhang , Rui Yan , Preslav Nakov , Xiuying Chen

The rampant proliferation of large language models, fluent enough to generate text indistinguishable from human-written language, gives unprecedented importance to the detection of machine-generated text. This work is motivated by an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Xiao Pu , Jingyu Zhang , Xiaochuang Han , Yulia Tsvetkov , Tianxing He

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Manit Paul , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Yuanchang Ye

The widespread adoption of ChatGPT has raised concerns about its misuse, highlighting the need for robust detection of AI-generated text. Current word-level detectors are vulnerable to paraphrasing or simple prompts (PSP), suffer from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Mo Mu , Dianqiao Lei , Chang Li

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Text generative models (TGMs) excel in producing text that matches the style of human language reasonably well. Such TGMs can be misused by adversaries, e.g., by automatically generating fake news and fake product reviews that can look…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Ganesh Jawahar , Muhammad Abdul-Mageed , Laks V. S. Lakshmanan

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones