Related papers: Assessing Risk Heterogeneity through Heavy-Tailed …

We develop a new classification framework based on the theory of coherent risk measures and systemic risk. The proposed approach is suitable for multi-class problems when the data is noisy, scarce (relative to the dimension of the problem),…

In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve…

Recently, long-tailed image classification harvests lots of research attention, since the data distribution is long-tailed in many real-world situations. Piles of algorithms are devised to address the data imbalance problem by biasing the…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered…

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…

The field of environmental epidemiology has placed an increasing emphasis on understanding the health effects of mixtures of metals, chemicals, and pollutants in recent years. Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) is a statistical…

Endogeneity poses significant challenges in causal inference across various research domains. This paper proposes a novel approach to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of endogeneity. We consider a structural equation…

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…

In order to fully utilize "big data", it is often required to use "big models". Such models tend to grow with the complexity and size of the training data, and do not make strong parametric assumptions upfront on the nature of the…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

This paper explores the applications of the 20/60/20 rule-a heuristic method that segments data into top-performing, average-performing, and underperforming groups-in mathematical finance. We review the statistical foundations of this rule…

In many situations we are interested in modeling real data where the response distribution, even conditionally on the covariates, presents asymmetry and/or heavy/light tails. In these situations, it is more suitable to consider models based…

Estimating high quantiles plays an important role in the context of risk management. This involves extrapolation of an unknown distribution function. In this paper we propose three methods, namely, the normal approximation method, the…

Randomized clinical trials are often designed to assess whether a test treatment prolongs survival relative to a control treatment. Increased patient heterogeneity, while desirable for generalizability of results, can weaken the ability of…

Background: Selecting feature genes to predict phenotypes is one of the typical tasks in analyzing genomics data. Though many general-purpose algorithms were developed for prediction, dealing with highly correlated genes in the prediction…

Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be applied to malware binary detection via image classification. The performance, however, is degraded due to the imbalance of malware families (classes). To mitigate this issue, we propose a…

Seemingly unrelated linear regression models are introduced in which the distribution of the errors is a finite mixture of Gaussian components. Identifiability conditions are provided. The score vector and the Hessian matrix are derived.…

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for…

We study the asymptotic spectral distribution of the conjugate kernel random matrix $YY^\top$, where $Y= f(WX)$ arises from a two-layer neural network model. We consider the setting where $W$ and $X$ are random rectangular matrices with…