Related papers: Tipping in an adaptive climate network model
Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, will have important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
The term 'resilience' is increasingly being used in social-technical-environmental systems sciences and particularly also in the Earth system sciences. However, the diversity of resilience concepts and a certain (sometimes intended)…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The climate is a complex non-equilibrium dynamical system that relaxes toward a steady state under the continuous input of solar radiation and dissipative mechanisms. The steady state is not necessarily unique. A useful tool to describe the…
The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven a robust means for statistically characterizing the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say $\mathcal A$ and $\mathcal B$, directly. More…
Many physical systems are forced by external inputs, which can sometimes take the form of chaotic variation. A particular example is found in applications related to weather and climate, where chaotic variation is prevalent across various…
Complex network theory provides a powerful framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and non-local statistical interrelationships, i.e. teleconnections, in the climate system. Climate networks constructed from the same…
Many natural and technological systems fail to adapt to changing external conditions and move to a different state if the conditions vary too fast. Such "non-adiabatic" processes are ubiquitous, but little understood. We identify these…
The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…
Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…
Anthropogenic warming impacts ecological communities and disturbs species interactions, particularly in temperature sensitive plant pollinator networks. While previous assessments indicate that rising mean temperatures and shifting temporal…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for non-autonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth "parameter shift" from one asymptotic value to another. We express tipping in terms of pullback…
Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this…