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In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Xinyuan Chen , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Deep learning survival models often outperform classical methods in time-to-event predictions, particularly in personalized medicine, but their "black box" nature hinders broader adoption. We propose a framework for gradient-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Sophie Hanna Langbein , Niklas Koenen , Marvin N. Wright

Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Guangyi Zhang , Reza Ashrafi , Anne Juuti , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

We propose an empirically stable and asymptotically efficient covariate-balancing approach to the problem of estimating survival causal effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring. This addresses a challenge often encountered…

This study investigates the impact of masking strategies on time series imputation models in healthcare settings. While current approaches predominantly rely on random masking for model evaluation, this practice fails to capture the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Linglong Qian , Yiyuan Yang , Wenjie Du , Jun Wang , Richard Dobsoni , Zina Ibrahim

Accurate time-to-event prediction is integral to decision-making, informing medical guidelines, hiring decisions, and resource allocation. Survival analysis, the quantitative framework used to model time-to-event data, accounts for patients…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Vincent Jeanselme , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

Time series domain adaptation aims to transfer the complex temporal dependence from the labeled source domain to the unlabeled target domain. Recent advances leverage the stable causal mechanism over observed variables to model the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Ruichu Cai , Junxian Huang , Zhenhui Yang , Zijian Li , Emadeldeen Eldele , Min Wu , Fuchun Sun

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

We propose a general formulation for continuous treatment recommendation problems in settings with clinical survival data, which we call the Deep Survival Dose Response Function (DeepSDRF). That is, we consider the problem of learning the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-27 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

Clinical time-series learning is routinely constrained by small, heterogeneous cohorts and protocol drift, while its downstream use spans both classification (e.g., pathology diagnosis) and regression (e.g., temporal forecasting). These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Sharmita Dey , Diego Paez-Granados

Survival analysis is a critical tool for the modelling of time-to-event data, such as life expectancy after a cancer diagnosis or optimal maintenance scheduling for complex machinery. However, current neural network models provide an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Fabio Luis de Mello , J Mark Wilkinson , Visakan Kadirkamanathan

Personalized healthcare decisions require reasoning about how physiological and behavioral variables influence an individual patient over time. Existing temporal causal discovery methods are poorly matched to this setting: cohort-level…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Elahe Khatibi , Ziyu Wang , Saba A. Farahani , Di Huang , Hung Cao , Ramesh Jain , Amir M. Rahmani

Estimating the individuals' potential response to varying treatment doses is crucial for decision-making in areas such as precision medicine and management science. Most recent studies predict counterfactual outcomes by learning a covariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Ruoxuan Xiong , Bo Li , Xiaoqing Yang , Xuan Qin , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

In recent years, discriminative self-supervised methods have made significant strides in advancing various visual tasks. The central idea of learning a data encoder that is robust to data distortions/augmentations is straightforward yet…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Yuewei Yang , Hai Li , Yiran Chen

Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski
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