Related papers: Physical Climate Risk in Asset Management
The application of models to assess the risk of the physical impacts of weather and climate and their subsequent consequences for society and business is of the utmost importance in our changing climate. The operation of such models is…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
A one-size-fits-all paradigm that only adapts the scale and immediate outcome of climate investment to economic circumstances will provide a short-lived, economically inadequate response to climate issues; given the limited resources…
Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…
We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond…
Modern climate change presents unprecedented challenges, posing critical crises that threaten sustainable development, human well-being, and planetary health. A significant concern is the potential for global warming to cause irreversible…
On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes…
Extreme weather can substantially change electricity consumption behavior, causing load curves to exhibit sharp spikes and pronounced volatility. If forecasts are inaccurate during those periods, power systems are more likely to face supply…
The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated…
This paper proposes a public-private insurance scheme for earthquakes and floods in Italy in which property-owners, the insurer and the government co-operate in risk financing. Our model departs from the existing literature by describing a…
Industrial operations have grown exponentially over the last century, driving advancements in energy utilization through vehicles and machinery.This growth has significant environmental implications, necessitating the use of sophisticated…