Related papers: Finite-Sample Risk Approximation and Risk-Consiste…

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

We intend to create a new risk assessment methodology that combines the best characteristics of both risk score and machine learning models. More specifically, we aim to develop a method that, besides having a good performance, offers a…

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) in item response theory (IRT) is highly sensitive to aberrant responses, such as careless answering and random guessing, which can reduce estimation accuracy. To address this issue, this study…

Nested simulation is a natural approach to tackle nested estimation problems in operations research and financial engineering. The outer-level simulation generates outer scenarios and the inner-level simulations are run in each outer…

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Theoretical guarantees are established for a standard estimator in a semi-parametric finite mixture model, where each component density is modeled as a product of univariate densities under a conditional independence assumption. The focus…

Operational risk models commonly employ maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to fit loss data to heavy-tailed distributions. Yet several desirable properties of MLE (e.g. asymptotic normality) are generally valid only for large sample-sizes,…

The optimality and sensitivity of the empirical risk minimization problem with relative entropy regularization (ERM-RER) are investigated for the case in which the reference is a sigma-finite measure instead of a probability measure. This…

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

Existing statistical learning guarantees for general kernel regressors often yield loose bounds when used with finite-rank kernels. Yet, finite-rank kernels naturally appear in several machine learning problems, e.g.\ when fine-tuning a…

The ability to rigorously estimate the failure rates of large language models (LLMs) is a prerequisite for their safe deployment. Currently, however, practitioners often face a tradeoff between expensive human gold standards and potentially…

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as…

Orthogonal group synchronization aims to recover orthogonal group elements from their noisy pairwise measurements. It has found numerous applications including computer vision, imaging science, and community detection. Due to the orthogonal…

A difficulty in MSE estimation occurs because we do not specify a full distribution for the survey weights. This obfuscates the use of fully parametric bootstrap procedures. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel MSE estimator. We…

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

We consider the application of a popular penalised regression method, Ridge Regression, to data with very high dimensions and many more covariates than observations. Our motivation is the problem of out-of-sample prediction and the setting…

We characterize the squared prediction risk of ensemble estimators obtained through subagging (subsample bootstrap aggregating) regularized M-estimators and construct a consistent estimator for the risk. Specifically, we consider a…

An estimation problem of fundamental interest is that of phase synchronization, in which the goal is to recover a collection of phases using noisy measurements of relative phases. It is known that in the Gaussian noise setting, the maximum…

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

We consider unregularized robust M-estimators for linear models under Gaussian design and heavy-tailed noise, in the proportional asymptotics regime where the sample size n and the number of features p are both increasing such that $p/n \to…