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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Natural Language Generation (NLG) is crucial for assessing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), as it reveals confidence in predictions, identifies failure modes, and gauges output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Sean Wang , Yicheng Jiang , Yuxin Tang , Lu Cheng , Hanjie Chen

Large Language Models (LLMs) display formidable capabilities in generative tasks but also pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the evaluation of model output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Qinhong Lin , Linna Zhou , Zhongliang Yang , Yuang Cai

Hallucinations pose a significant obstacle to the reliability and widespread adoption of language models, yet their accurate measurement remains a persistent challenge. While many task- and domain-specific metrics have been proposed to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Atharva Kulkarni , Yuan Zhang , Joel Ruben Antony Moniz , Xiou Ge , Bo-Hsiang Tseng , Dhivya Piraviperumal , Swabha Swayamdipta , Hong Yu

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Reward models are central to aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Yet most approaches rely on pointwise reward estimates that overlook the epistemic uncertainty in reward models arising from limited human feedback.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Daniel Yang , Samuel Stante , Florian Redhardt , Lena Libon , Parnian Kassraie , Ido Hakimi , Barna Pásztor , Andreas Krause

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly pervasive, finding applications across many industries and disciplines. Ensuring the trustworthiness of LLM outputs is paramount, where Uncertainty Estimation (UE) plays a key role. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Kevin Wang , Subre Abdoul Moktar , Jia Li , Kangshuo Li , Feng Chen

This survey presents a comprehensive analysis of the phenomenon of hallucination in multimodal large language models (MLLMs), also known as Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), which have demonstrated significant advancements and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Zechen Bai , Pichao Wang , Tianjun Xiao , Tong He , Zongbo Han , Zheng Zhang , Mike Zheng Shou

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Zhiting Mei , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant popularity for their impressive performance across diverse fields. However, LLMs are prone to hallucinate untruthful or nonsensical outputs that fail to meet user expectations in many…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Tianhang Zhang , Lin Qiu , Qipeng Guo , Cheng Deng , Yue Zhang , Zheng Zhang , Chenghu Zhou , Xinbing Wang , Luoyi Fu

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

Large language models (LLMs) are known to "hallucinate" by generating false or misleading outputs. Hallucinations pose various harms, from erosion of trust to widespread misinformation. Existing hallucination evaluation, however, focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Prakhar Ganesh , Reza Shokri , Golnoosh Farnadi

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for large language models are predominantly designed by hand based on domain knowledge and heuristics, limiting their scalability and generality. We apply LLM-powered evolutionary search to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Mikhail Seleznyov , Daniil Korbut , Viktor Moskvoretskii , Oleg Somov , Alexander Panchenko , Elena Tutubalina

While past works have shown how uncertainty quantification can be applied to large language model (LLM) outputs, the question of whether resulting uncertainty guarantees still hold within sub-groupings of data remains open. In our work,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Terrance Liu , Zhiwei Steven Wu

The Large language models (LLMs) have showcased superior capabilities in sophisticated tasks across various domains, stemming from basic question-answer (QA), they are nowadays used as decision assistants or explainers for unfamiliar…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Longchao Da , Tiejin Chen , Lu Cheng , Hua Wei

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

The rapid rise of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping the landscape of automatic assessment in education. While these systems demonstrate substantial advantages in adaptability to diverse question types and flexibility in output…