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Given independent samples generated from the joint distribution $p(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y},\mathbf{z})$, we study the problem of Conditional Independence (CI-Testing), i.e., whether the joint equals the CI distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Rajat Sen , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Himanshu Asnani , Arman Rahimzamani , Sreeram Kannan

Mixture proportion estimation (MPE) aims to estimate class priors from unlabeled data. This task is a critical component in weakly supervised learning, such as PU learning, learning with label noise, and domain adaptation. Existing MPE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Yushi Hirose , Akito Narahara , Takafumi Kanamori

We consider the problem of conditional density estimation, which is a major topic of interest in the fields of statistical and machine learning. Our method, called Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, MCD, reformulates the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-05 Katia Meziani , Aminata Ndiaye , Benjamin Riu

We propose a test of the conditional independence of random variables $X$ and~$Y$ given~$Z$ under the additional assumption that $X$ is stochastically nondecreasing in~$Z$. The well-documented hardness of testing conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Rohan Hore , Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth

The standard constraint-based paradigm for causal discovery with incomplete data -- impute first, test second -- is frequently miscalibrated: any consistent conditional independence (CI) test rejects a true null with probability approaching…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Thomas S. Robinson , Ranjit Lall

Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Identifying relationships among stochastic processes is a core objective in many fields, such as economics. While the standard toolkit for multivariate time series analysis has many advantages, it can be difficult to capture nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Michael Wieck-Sosa , Michel F. C. Haddad , Aaditya Ramdas

Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third is a fundamental and challenging problem in statistics, particularly in multivariate nonparametric settings due to the complexity of conditional structures. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-28 Chenxuan He , Yuan Gao , Liping Zhu , Jian Huang

We introduce the Conditional Independence Regression CovariancE (CIRCE), a measure of conditional independence for multivariate continuous-valued variables. CIRCE applies as a regularizer in settings where we wish to learn neural features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Roman Pogodin , Namrata Deka , Yazhe Li , Danica J. Sutherland , Victor Veitch , Arthur Gretton

Measuring conditional dependence is an important topic in statistics with broad applications including graphical models. Under a factor model setting, a new conditional dependence measure based on projection is proposed. The corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Lucy Xia

We study the data-driven selection of causal graphical models using constraint-based algorithms, which determine the existence or non-existence of edges (causal connections) in a graph based on testing a series of conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Daniel Malinsky

We demonstrate how to test for conditional independence of two variables with categorical data using Poisson log-linear models. The size of the conditioning set of variables can vary from 0 (simple independence) up to many variables. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-08 Michail Tsagris

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms utilize many statistical tests for conditional independence to uncover networks of causal dependencies. These approaches to causal discovery rely on an assumed correspondence between the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Bijan Mazaheri , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

This paper introduces the sequential CRT, which is a variable selection procedure that combines the conditional randomization test (CRT) and Selective SeqStep+. Valid p-values are constructed via the flexible CRT, which are then ordered and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-08 Shuangning Li , Emmanuel J. Candès

We study the problem of testing \emph{conditional independence} for discrete distributions. Specifically, given samples from a discrete random variable $(X, Y, Z)$ on domain $[\ell_1]\times[\ell_2] \times [n]$, we want to distinguish, with…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Clément L. Canonne , Ilias Diakonikolas , Daniel M. Kane , Alistair Stewart

This work addresses testing the independence of two continuous and finite-dimensional random variables from the design of a data-driven partition. The empirical log-likelihood statistic is adopted to approximate the sufficient statistics of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Mauricio E. Gonzalez , Jorge F. Silva , Miguel Videla , Marcos E. Orchard

Conditional Independence (CI) graphs are a type of probabilistic graphical models that are primarily used to gain insights about feature relationships. Each edge represents the partial correlation between the connected features which gives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Harsh Shrivastava , Urszula Chajewska

Conditional independence provides a way to understand causal relationships among the variables of interest. An underlying system may exhibit more fine-grained causal relationships especially between a variable and its parents, which will be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Inwoo Hwang , Yunhyeok Kwak , Yeon-Ji Song , Byoung-Tak Zhang , Sanghack Lee

Model-X approaches to testing conditional independence between a predictor and an outcome variable given a vector of covariates usually assume exact knowledge of the conditional distribution of the predictor given the covariates.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-10 Ziang Niu , Abhinav Chakraborty , Oliver Dukes , Eugene Katsevich
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