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We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 M. Sampson , K. S. Chan

In this paper, we consider sequential testing over a single-sensor, a single-decision center setup. At each time instant $t$, the sensor gets $k$ samples $(k>0)$ and describes the observed sequence until time $t$ to the decision center over…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Sadaf Salehkalaibar , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Doubly robust estimators with cross-fitting have gained popularity in causal inference due to their favorable structure-agnostic error guarantees. However, when additional structure, such as H\"{o}lder smoothness, is available then more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-08 Alec McClean , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

Confidence intervals (CIs) are instrumental in statistical analysis, providing a range estimate of the parameters. In modern statistics, selective inference is common, where only certain parameters are highlighted. However, this selective…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Tzviel Frostig , Yoav Benjamini , Ruth Heller

False discovery rate (FDR) has been widely used as an error measure in large scale multiple testing problems, but most research in the area has been focused on procedures for controlling the FDR based on independent test statistics or the…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-29 Weihua Tang , Cun-Hui Zhang

In the regression discontinuity design (RDD), it is common practice to assess the credibility of the design by testing the continuity of the density of the running variable at the cut-off, e.g., McCrary (2008). In this paper we propose an…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-13 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay

The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo

We propose a new method to test conditional independence of two real random variables $Y$ and $Z$ conditionally on an arbitrary third random variable $X$. %with $F_{.|.}$ representing conditional distribution functions, The partial copula…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-01-25 Wicher Bergsma

Semiparametric single-index assumptions are convenient and widely used dimen\-sion reduction approaches that represent a compromise between the parametric and fully nonparametric models for regressions or conditional laws. In a mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-21 Samuel Maistre , Valentin Patilea

The purpose of sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is to find the low-dimensional subspace of input features that is sufficient for predicting output values. In this paper, we propose a novel distribution-free SDR method called sufficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-03-28 Makoto Yamada , Gang Niu , Jun Takagi , Masashi Sugiyama

Testing independence among a number of (ultra) high-dimensional random samples is a fundamental and challenging problem. By arranging $n$ identically distributed $p$-dimensional random vectors into a $p \times n$ data matrix, we investigate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-28 Xi Chen , Weidong Liu

In many scientific problems, researchers try to relate a response variable $Y$ to a set of potential explanatory variables $X = (X_1,\dots,X_p)$, and start by trying to identify variables that contribute to this relationship. In statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-07 Wenshuo Wang , Lucas Janson

In this paper we propose several variants to perform the independence test between two random elements based on recurrence rates. We will show how to calculate the test statistic in each one of these cases. From simulations we obtain that…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-21 Juan Kalemkerian , Diego Fernández

Detection with high dimensional multimodal data is a challenging problem when there are complex inter- and intra- modal dependencies. While several approaches have been proposed for dependent data fusion (e.g., based on copula theory),…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-14 Thakshila Wimalajeewa , Pramod K. Varshney

We propose a new testing procedure of heteroskedasticity in high-dimensional linear regression, where the number of covariates can be larger than the sample size. Our testing procedure is based on residuals of the Lasso. We demonstrate that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Akira Shinkyu

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-19 Chih-Yuan Chiu , Kshitij Kulkarni , Shankar Sastry

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-08 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Fedor Noskov , Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov

Spherical and hyperspherical data are commonly encountered in diverse applied research domains, underscoring the vital task of assessing independence within such data structures. In this context, we investigate the properties of test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Marija Cuparić , Bruno Ebner , Bojana Milošević

There are a number of ways to test for the absence/presence of a spatial signal in a completely observed fine-resolution image. One of these is a powerful nonparametric procedure called Enhanced False Discovery Rate (EFDR). A drawback of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-20 Hsin-Cheng Huang , Noel Cressie , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Guowen Huang
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