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Related papers: Measuring likelihood in cybersecurity

200 papers

Proactive cyber-risk assessment is gaining momentum due to the wide range of sectors that can benefit from the prevention of cyber-incidents by preserving integrity, confidentiality, and the availability of data. The rising attention to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-11 Mario Angelelli , Serena Arima , Christian Catalano , Enrico Ciavolino

Risk assessment is a major challenge for supply chain managers, as it potentially affects business factors such as service costs, supplier competition and customer expectations. The increasing interconnectivity between organisations has put…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-27 Alberto Redondo , Alberto Torres-Barrán , David Ríos Insua , Jordi Domingo

The lack of high-quality public cyber incident data limits empirical research and predictive modeling for cyber risk assessment. This challenge persists due to the reluctance of companies to disclose incidents that could damage their…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-20 Jiayi Guo , Zhiyu Quan , Linfeng Zhang

There are two strategic and longstanding questions about cyber risk that organizations largely have been unable to answer: What is an organization's estimated risk exposure and how does its security compare with peers? Answering both…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Taylor Reynolds , Sarah Scheffler , Daniel J. Weitzner , Angelina Wu

The assessment of cyber risk plays a crucial role for cybersecurity management, and has become a compulsory task for certain types of companies and organizations. This makes the demand for reliable cyber risk assessment tools continuously…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Massimo Battaglioni , Giulia Rafaiani , Franco Chiaraluce , Marco Baldi

Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing with the advancement of technology and there is no protection for our information. To prevent future cyberattacks it is critical to promptly recognize cyberattacks and establish strong defense mechanisms…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Sawera Shahid , Umara Noor , Zahid Rashid

With rise in security breaches over the past few years, there has been an increasing need to mine insights from social media platforms to raise alerts of possible attacks in an attempt to defend conflict during competition. We use…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Soumajyoti Sarkar , Mohammad Almukaynizi , Jana Shakarian , Paulo Shakarian

The challenge of decision-making under uncertainty in information security has become increasingly important, given the unpredictable probabilities and effects of events in the ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Cyber threat intelligence…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Martijn Dekker , Lampis Alevizos

While attack graphs are useful for identifying major cybersecurity threats affecting a system, they do not provide operational support for determining the likelihood of having a known vulnerability exploited, or that critical system nodes…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Francesco Vitale , Simone Guarino , Stefano Perone , Massimiliano Rak , Nicola Mazzocca

Municipalities are vulnerable to cyberattacks with devastating consequences, but they lack key information to evaluate their own risk and compare their security posture to peers. Using data from 83 municipalities collected via a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Avital Baral , Taylor Reynolds , Lawrence Susskind , Daniel J. Weitzner , Angelina Wu

It is very challenging to predict the cost of a cyber incident owing to the complex nature of cyber risk. However, it is inevitable for insurance companies who offer cyber insurance policies. The time to identifying an incident and the time…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-27 Maochao Xu , Quynh Nhu Nguyen

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and…

Cyber risk refers to the risk of defacing reputation, monetary losses, or disruption of an organization or individuals, and this situation usually occurs by the unconscious use of cyber systems. The cyber risk is unhurriedly increasing day…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Fatama Tuz Johora , Md Shahedul Islam Khan , Esrath Kanon , Mohammad Abu Tareq Rony , Md Zubair , Iqbal H. Sarker

Contemporary cybersecurity governance assumes that professionals apply risk reasoning. Yet major organisational failures persist despite investment in tools, staffing, and credentials. This study investigates the structural source of that…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Jeffrey T. Gardiner

These days, cyber-criminals target humans rather than machines since they try to accomplish their malicious intentions by exploiting the weaknesses of end users. Thus, human vulnerabilities pose a serious threat to the security and…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Dimitra Papatsaroucha , Yannis Nikoloudakis , Ioannis Kefaloukos , Evangelos Pallis , Evangelos K. Markakis

This paper presents the Cybersecurity Psychology Framework (CPF), a novel methodology for quantifying human-centric vulnerabilities in security operations through systematic integration of established psychological constructs with…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Giuseppe Canale

Breaking cybersecurity events are shared across a range of websites, including security blogs (FireEye, Kaspersky, etc.), in addition to social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter. In this paper, we investigate methods to analyze…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-05-06 Shi Zong , Alan Ritter , Graham Mueller , Evan Wright

Risk assessment plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and resilience of modern computer systems. Existing methods for conducting risk assessments often suffer from tedious and time-consuming processes, making it challenging to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-07-27 Simon Unger , Ektor Arzoglou , Markus Heinrich , Dirk Scheuermann , Stefan Katzenbeisser

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) integrate physical and embedded systems with information and communication technology systems, monitoring and controlling physical processes with minimal human intervention. The connection to information and…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Asila AlHarmali , Saqib Ali , Waqas Aman , Omar Hussain

The explosive growth of cyber attacks nowadays, such as malware, spam, and intrusions, caused severe consequences on society. Securing cyberspace has become an utmost concern for organizations and governments. Traditional Machine Learning…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Bo Yan , Cheng Yang , Chuan Shi , Yong Fang , Qi Li , Yanfang Ye , Junping Du